Gasoline prices drop sharply but prices of many items remain high, the Ministry of Finance explains

Hương Nguyễn |

Why is Vietnam's inflation index not close to the actual price of some essential goods such as gasoline and oil prices on the market in recent times? How does the Ministry of Finance forecast inflation from now until the end of the year?

10/11 groups in the price index basket increased in July

A representative of the Ministry of Finance said that currently, the average consumer price index is used as a measure of the economy's inflation in the annual socio-economic development plans of the National Assembly and the Government as proposed by the Ministry of Planning and Investment. The investigation, calculation and announcement are the responsibility of the General Statistics Office (Ministry of Planning and Investment).

Explaining why inflation is still rising despite falling gasoline prices, the Ministry of Finance said that in July 2022, except for the transport group with a sharp decrease in price index (-2.85%), the remaining 10/11 groups of goods and consumer services all have an increase in price index compared to the previous month.

In July 2022, domestic gasoline prices fell sharply due to the impact of environmental protection tax reduction and fluctuations from world gasoline prices.

On the other hand, prices of many essential consumer goods have fluctuated, including pork and some poultry prices due to high prices of animal feed, prices of fresh seafood due to increased fuel prices; egg prices of all kinds have increased due to the Mid-Autumn Festival cake production season.

The cultural, entertainment and tourism price index increased second highest among commodity groups due to increased demand during the summer.

The domestic electricity and water price index is increasing gradually due to the need to use more electricity and domestic water in the hot season; prices of construction materials and home repair workers increase due to increased demand for input materials; transportation service prices increase due to the peak tourist season; prices of beverages increase due to increased consumer demand in the summer, at the same time, input materials and transportation prices increase...

"From now until the end of the year, there is still much pressure on the price level from complex and unpredictable fluctuations in the prices of strategic items on the world market, especially the prices of energy products, food, raw materials for production; the implementation of the market price roadmap for some items managed by the State; potential risks from epidemics, natural disasters, floods... that can cause difficulties for production and business activities and the supply chain of goods and services.

In addition, in the second half of the year, when the packages in the Government's recovery program are implemented, in addition to supporting the economy to recover better, it will also put pressure on controlling inflation due to better recovery of the total demand, increased spending and tourism demand of people after a long period of being limited by the COVID-19 pandemic," said a representative of the Ministry of Finance.

What factors reduce inflationary pressure?

Currently, most central banks in the world have made policy adjustments, focusing on tightening monetary policy to prioritize controlling inflation.

When inflation in countries is controlled, pressure from the external environment can help control domestic inflation, expecting inflation to be better anchored.

The policies of the National Assembly and the Government are to stabilize the macro economy and control inflation.

The supply of consumer goods, food, and food on the market is still abundant, along with the current and expected fiscal policies, which also contribute to reducing pressure on price levels.

The Ministry of Finance and the Standing Committee of the Price Steering Committee will coordinate with ministries and branches according to their state management functions to actively assess, grasp the situation, prepare forecast plans and scenarios to advise the Government and the Prime Minister to propose solutions suitable to the actual situation to control inflation according to the set goals.

According to the General Statistics Office, the CPI in July 2022 increased by 0.4% compared to the previous month, increased by 3.59% compared to December 2021 and increased by 3.14% compared to July 2021.

On average, in the first 7 months of 2022, the CPI increased by 2.54% over the same period last year; core inflation increased by 1.44%.

In July 2022, except for the transport group with a sharp decrease in price index (-2.85%), the remaining 10/11 groups of goods and main consumer services all had an increase in price index compared to the previous month.

Hương Nguyễn
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