World gold price movements last week
The precious metals market experienced strong fluctuations after joint airstrikes by the US and Israel against Iran this week. Gold prices jumped above $5,400/ounce at the beginning of the week, but then fell back as global markets assessed the possible consequences of a new conflict in the Middle East.
Spot gold opened strongly up to $5,348.15/ounce on Sunday evening (US time), right after fighting broke out the day before. The initial upward momentum continued as gold quickly climbed to the week's highest level, nearly $5,420/ounce at around 3:15 am on Monday.
However, when the North American market opened, the upward momentum of this precious metal weakened. Spot gold traded around 5,347 USD/ounce. After falling rapidly to about 5,290 USD/ounce right before noon US Eastern time, gold prices recovered to the upper 5,300 USD/ounce area at about 8:15 pm on the same day.
However, after the second time unable to surpass the 5,400 USD/ounce mark at around 11:15 pm, gold prices began to plummet. Spot gold prices fell to 5,289 USD at 1:00 am, to 5,242 USD/ounce at 4:15 am, down to 5,126 USD/ounce at 6:15 am and continued to fall deeply below 5,040 USD/ounce - the week's lowest level just 15 minutes after the North American market opened on Tuesday morning.
After a sharp decrease, the precious metal market entered a accumulation phase and moved sideways for the rest of the week.
After a slight increase from the bottom, spot gold prices fell back to about 5,070 USD/ounce at 12:30 PM on Tuesday. This level then became a support zone in the following trading sessions. Gold prices fluctuated in the range of about 100 USD, from 5,070 to 5,170 USD/ounce, sometimes soaring to test the resistance level of 5,200 USD/ounce.
In the last days of the week, the USD, oil prices and other key markets continuously adjusted according to news from the Middle East. However, gold prices remained flat as metal traders could not clearly determine the medium-term impact of the new conflict.
By the end of Friday's trading session, gold prices stood above the four-day accumulation pattern, closing the week at 5,171.50 USD/ounce.
Gold price forecast for next week
The latest weekly gold survey with Wall Street experts shows inconsistent views on the short-term trend of gold prices, while the optimism of individual investors has returned to the average level after a week of weakening gold.
This week, 18 experts participated in the Gold Survey. Only half of Wall Street analysts maintained an optimistic view after gold prices lost momentum.
9 experts, equivalent to 50%, predict that gold prices will increase next week. Meanwhile, 4 people (22%) believe that gold prices may decrease. The remaining 5 analysts, accounting for 28%, assess that the risk of increase and decrease is quite balanced in the short term.
Meanwhile, Kitco's online survey recorded 340 votes from individual investors. The sentiment of this group has returned to the upper 60% zone - the level maintained since the initial sell-off in February.
There are 211 small traders, equivalent to 62%, who believe that gold prices will continue to increase next week. 56 people (16%) predict gold prices will decrease. The remaining 73 investors, accounting for 22%, believe that gold prices may continue to move sideways next week.
Economic data to be tracked next week
Next week's economic data release schedule will focus on important indicators of inflation and growth, while providing a more detailed view of the housing market as well as consumer health in the US.
On Tuesday morning, the market will receive a report on existing home sales in the US in February. Next, the consumer price index (CPI) for February will be announced on Wednesday.
By Thursday, investors will track weekly unemployment claims, along with data on homeowners and construction permits in January in the US.
On Friday morning, a series of important data continued to be released, including durable goods orders, preliminary estimates of Q4 GDP, core inflation index PCE and the number of unfilled jobs according to the JOLTS survey - all for January. In addition, a preliminary survey on consumer confidence in March by the University of Michigan will also be released on the same day.
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