Silver prices are forecast to continue to record a supply deficit for the 6th consecutive year, this factor may still not be strong enough to bring the price of this precious metal back to the peak level set in January.
In the latest report on the silver market, Mr. Mike McGlone - Senior Market Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence - continues to maintain a rather cautious view. According to him, silver prices may "linger in the 50 - 100 USD/ounce range for many years to come".
The above assessment was made in the context that silver prices have not yet been able to maintain stability above the resistance level of 80 USD/ounce. At the time of writing the article (1:47 AM on April 17 - Vietnam time), spot silver prices were recorded at 78.44 USD/ounce, down 0.241% during the day.
Although not excluding the possibility that silver may increase sharply again to return to the peak above 120 USD/ounce as in January, Mr. McGlone believes that too high a price level will lead to a fundamental change in the supply-demand relationship.
According to this expert, when prices increase in a "skyrocketing" direction, the market may shift from a state of supply shortage to a stage where high prices themselves weaken demand, thereby creating downward adjustment pressure.
Mr. McGlone said that the current developments of silver have many similarities with hot periods in the past. The upward momentum starting clearly from mid-2025 has brought silver prices to a level 2.6 times higher than the 10-year moving average - similar to the strong increase that took place in 2011.
He assessed that at around 79 USD/ounce on April 15, silver prices seem to be "stuck" in the 50 - 100 USD/ounce range for a long time. The risk of adjusting to the 10-year average of around 33 USD/ounce is currently rated higher than the ability to maintain sustainably above the 100 USD/ounce mark.
Not only that, Mr. McGlone also noted that the 180-day volatility of silver is currently more than 5 times higher than the S&P 500 index - the highest level since 1980, when the metal once peaked just below the 50 USD/ounce threshold. That peak was repeated in 2011 and was only actually surpassed in 2025.
In the scenario of the current trend reversing, Bloomberg Intelligence strategist believes that silver prices could completely return to the 50 USD/ounce mark.
This less optimistic forecast is made as the market continues to assess the Silver Survey annual report of the Silver Institute. The report shows that the silver market this year may continue to be short of about 46.3 million ounces.
However, industrial demand is forecast to decrease by 3% this year, mainly due to silver consumption in the solar panel sector decreasing by 19%.
Meanwhile, Metals Focus - the research unit implementing the report - believes that investment demand will be the main driving force of the silver market this year. The report forecasts investment demand to increase by 18%, of which physical silver ETFs may attract about 30 tons more capital flows.
Update on domestic silver prices
Early in the morning of April 17, the price of 2024 Ancarat 999 silver bars (1 tael) at Ancarat Gem Company was listed at 2.989 - 3.063 million VND/tael (buying - selling).
The price of 2025 Ancarat 999 silver bars (1kg) at Ancarat Precious Metals Company is listed at 78,790 - 81,180 million VND/kg (buy - sell).
The price of Kim Phuc Loc 999 silver bars (1 tael) of Saigon Thuong Tin Commercial Joint Stock Company Limited (Sacombank-SBJ) is listed at the threshold of 2.970 - 3.060 million VND/tael (buying - selling).
At the same time, the price of 999 silver bars (1 tael) at Phu Quy Jewelry Group was listed at the threshold of 2.986 - 3.078 million VND/tael (buying - selling).
