World gold prices have just closed the trading week with an increase of more than 2%, ending a series of consecutive weeks of adjustments and regaining the 4,100 USD/ounce mark. This recovery momentum helps market sentiment improve significantly, but the outlook for next week is still assessed as heavily dependent on the diễn biến of the USD, US government bond yields and new signals from the US Federal Reserve (Fed).
After falling below the threshold of 4,000 USD/ounce at the beginning of the week, gold prices rebounded sharply in the last sessions of the week thanks to the weakening USD and expectations that the Fed does not need to accelerate the roadmap to tighten monetary policy. However, US government bond yields still remained around 4.5%, showing that pressure on the precious metal has not completely disappeared.
According to technical analysis, the 4,200 USD/ounce zone will continue to be an important resistance level next week. If the price successfully crosses the 4,200 – 4,350 USD/ounce zone, the recovery momentum may be strengthened, opening up the possibility of moving towards higher levels such as 4,500 USD/ounce.
Conversely, if it cannot overcome this resistance zone, gold may enter a period of accumulation or undergo short-term adjustment pressure when profit-taking force appears after a strong increase.
On the supporting side, the area of 4,090 – 4,100 USD/ounce continues to be considered a price area to be monitored. If losing this level, gold prices may retreat to test the psychological threshold of 4,000 USD/ounce. In case selling pressure increases, the 3,950 USD/ounce area will be the next supporting level.
In addition to technical factors, the diễn biến of the USD is still considered an important variable for the gold market. If the greenback continues to weaken, gold's attractiveness may improve as holding costs for investors using other currencies decrease. Conversely, the recovery of the USD and the return of bond yields may put pressure on the precious metal.
In addition, the market will also monitor US economic data released this week, especially information related to inflation, service activities and minutes of the Fed's most recent policy meeting. These are factors that could change expectations about the interest rate roadmap in the near future.
From a medium and long-term perspective, gold buying demand from central banks is still considered an important supporting factor. The increase in gold reserves of many countries in recent times continues to create a foundation for the market, contributing to limiting the risk of deep decline each time prices adjust.
In general, after the strongest recovery week since the end of May, the gold market is entering a phase of trend testing. The ability to conquer the 4,200 USD/ounce mark will play an important role in determining whether the current upward momentum can be extended or gold will continue to fluctuate in the accumulation zone before forming a new trend.
