World gold prices closed the trading week with fluctuations after failing to maintain stability above the 4,100 USD/ounce mark. Next week, the market is forecast to face major fluctuations when a series of important US economic data is released, in which the focus is the consumer price index (CPI) for June and the first hearing before Congress by Chairman of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) Kevin Warsh.
The main pressure comes from US government bond yields maintained at a high level, the USD maintaining strength and expectations that the Fed will continue to prioritize controlling inflation in the context of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East increasing risks to energy prices.
According to the schedule released by the US statistics agency, the June CPI report will be the data with the greatest impact on short-term interest rate expectations. If inflation continues to cool down, the market may reduce expectations of the Fed raising interest rates, thereby supporting gold prices. Conversely, a higher-than-forecast CPI report could cause the USD and bond yields to rebound, creating more pressure on the precious metal.
Along with inflation data, investors will also closely monitor the semi-annual hearing of Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh before the US Congress to look for new signals on monetary policy orientation in the last months of the year. Currently, the CME FedWatch tool still shows that the market maintains a significant probability that the Fed will have another wave of interest rate hikes this year if inflationary pressure is not fully controlled.
In addition to the CPI, next week the market will also receive a series of other important data such as the producer price index (PPI), retail sales, regional manufacturing surveys, housing data and consumer confidence. These indicators will contribute to shaping expectations about the health of the US economy as well as the Fed's policy roadmap in the coming time.
From a long-term perspective, gold's outlook still receives support from the buying demand of central banks. In the mid-2026 outlook report, the World Gold Council (WGC) said that demand from the formal sector continues to be one of the important factors supporting the market, even as gold prices are undergoing a period of strong correction after their historic peak at the beginning of the year.
Meanwhile, JPMorgan's latest research report still maintains a positive view on the long-term outlook for gold, although it believes that short-term developments will continue to depend on the Fed's monetary policy, the strength of the USD and the cooling rate of inflation.
