According to Mr. Doug Moglia - macro and market strategist at Rockefeller Global Investment Management, gold is still the pillar of the new commodity cycle.
Mr. Moglia believes that goods have regained their role as a tool to diversify investment portfolios after many years of being underestimated. Structural demand is now combined with limited supply in most commodity groups.
According to him, while the common story of goods is driven by electrification, AI infrastructure construction, bringing domestic production back, energy security and many years of lack of investment, precious metals are still the leading group.
Precious metals have led, with gold up 92% and silver more than doubling, equivalent to 152%, since the beginning of 2025," Mr. Moglia said. "Gold is supported by persistent buying activity by central banks, which has accelerated since 2022 after Russia's foreign exchange reserves were sanctioned. However, 2025 marks a turning point in the upward trend of precious metals, as speculative cash flow increases sharply along with a clear weakening of the USD, thereby amplifying the upward momentum of higher beta-coefficient metals such as silver and platinum.
Mr. Moglia believes that the current gold price rise market can be compared to the major regime changes in the past 50 years.
We believe that gold has entered its third long-term upward price market since 2022, similar to previous regime transition points in the early 1970s after the Bretton Woods system collapsed, and at the millennium transition, when gold emerged as a hedge against financial instability after the technology bubble" - Mr. Moglia said.
In this new price rise cycle, the catalyst is the Russia-Ukraine conflict," he added.
According to Mr. Moglia, global central banks realize that reserves held in the USD - EUR system may be affected by political and legal fluctuations. This has fundamentally changed the way central banks manage reserves and assess national autonomy. Gold - a global macro asset without issuing institutions and without partnership risks - has become the main beneficiary.
He believes that the scale of the global shift to gold is clearly shown through the buying activities of central banks.
As a result, for 3 consecutive years from 2022-2024, global central banks bought more than 1,000 tons of gold per year, equivalent to about 20-25% of global annual gold mining output," Mr. Moglia said. "In addition, gold price movements have become significantly less sensitive to traditional cyclical drivers, including global growth expectations, real interest rate changes and the USD.
Mr. Moglia said last year opened the next phase of gold price increases, when Western financial investors joined the buying force from the formal sector through retail transactions and ETF capital flows.
However, Mr. Moglia warned that, although this transition supports higher prices, it also increases the possibility of stronger corrections.
Despite increasing volatility, Mr. Moglia believes that many other important drivers continue to strengthen gold's upward outlook.
Increased concerns about the independence of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) have supported currencies such as gold, because a politicized central bank will weaken confidence in the US financial system and therefore the USD," he said. "Raising fiscal risks, along with the possibility that these risks worsen before improvement, also support increased gold holdings. Finally, geopolitical shocks, including the newly broken war with Iran, are increasing investor interest.
Mr. Moglia believes that gold may reach much higher levels than it is now before this decade ends.
“We believe gold will trade above $5,500/ounce in 2027 and reach $8,000/ounce before 2030, with the possibility of rising beyond $10,000/ounce,” he wrote.
