Mr. Ole Hansen – Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank – tracked the 50-day moving average of gold, just below the 5,000 USD/ounce mark, as an important support threshold. However, this support level was broken at the beginning of European trading on Wednesday, pulling gold prices to a 6-week low.
Spot gold price at 9:11 am (Vietnam time) was listed around the threshold of 4, 846.9 USD/ounce. He predicted that gold prices could fall deeper to the 4, 660 USD/ounce range in the near future.
Besides technical pressure, gold also faces fundamental obstacles in the short term.
He commented: "The impact of war on the energy market has increased inflation expectations, while central banks have been cautious with policy easing. The sharp increase in oil and refined products, especially diesel, has reduced the possibility of short-term interest rate cuts, even causing the market to lean towards a longer-term high interest rate scenario. This supports real yields – a disadvantageous factor for non-performing assets like gold.
In this context, technical factors will continue to increase volatility and selling pressure.
Gold is one of the most profitable and crowded investment channels in recent years, supported by central bank buying activity, geopolitical risk hedging needs and concerns about currency devaluation. Breaking important technical thresholds recently has triggered selling pressure in a trending manner, while risk-avoidance sentiment has caused investors to reduce profitable positions to increase liquidity," he said.
