The recovery of gold coincided with the slight cooling of US bond yields after a period of strong increase before, amid expectations of the possibility of ending the Iranian conflict helping to ease concerns about inflation due to rising energy prices.
US President Donald Trump said Washington is moving closer to an agreement to end the conflict with Iran. This statement attracted great attention from the market after information emerged that three super oil tankers had begun leaving the Persian Gulf to transport goods to Asia.
This development is seen as the first practical signal showing that the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz - the world's important energy transport route - may soon be resolved.
Oil prices have fallen sharply after the above information, leading to inflationary pressure cooling down somewhat - a factor that once put great pressure on gold for more than a week.
In recent sessions, the link between oil prices, inflation and the gold market has become the focus of attention of investors.
The disruption of operations in the Strait of Hormuz has pushed energy prices up sharply, causing inflation in the US to reach a three-year high and increasing expectations that the Fed will maintain high interest rates for longer. This has caused gold to lose some of the advantage from previous monetary policy easing expectations.
However, new developments on Wednesday helped the market expect inflationary pressure to cool down faster than forecast if global energy supply soon stabilizes again.
WTI oil prices fell nearly 5% in the session and fell below the 100 USD/barrel mark, thereby contributing to easing pressure on the gold market.
Minutes of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting released on the same day also showed that the Fed still has many different views on interest rate prospects.
Some Fed members believe that there is still a possibility of raising interest rates this year if inflation continues to stay above the 2% target. However, the market's language assessment in the minutes still leaves open the possibility that the Fed may maintain a more stable policy if energy prices continue to fall in the near future.
According to data from CME Group, the market is currently sharing expectations between the possibility of the Fed raising interest rates at the end of the year and the possibility of keeping interest rates unchanged until the end of 2026.
This is expected to cause the gold market to continue to fluctuate strongly in the coming time. Despite being under short-term adjustment pressure, long-term supporting factors for gold have not disappeared.
The World Gold Council (WGC) said that global gold demand in the first quarter of 2026 reached a record level of 1,230.9 tons, thanks to strong buying power for gold bars and gold coins in Asia.
Meanwhile, JPMorgan forecasts that central banks may buy about 755 tons of gold in 2026 and continue to maintain the gold price target of 5,000 USD/ounce in the fourth quarter of this year.
Analysts believe that the trend of gold in the coming time will largely depend on developments in the Middle East.
If the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened and stabilized for a long time, inflationary pressure may be significantly reduced, thereby helping the Fed reduce pressure to continue tightening monetary policy and support gold recovery.
Conversely, if negotiations collapse and tensions escalate again, gold may continue to be under downward pressure to lower support zones around 4,466 - 4,423 USD/ounce.
