Gold prices are forecast by Goldman Sachs Research to continue to increase in the second half of 2026, heading towards 4,900 USD/ounce by the end of the year thanks to persistent gold buying demand from central banks and changes in Fed interest rate expectations.
According to Goldman Sachs Research, gold demand from central banks is becoming a structural driving force for the precious metals market. This trend is forecast to continue for many years as central banks increase the proportion of gold in foreign exchange reserves.
Goldman Sachs forecasts that central banks will buy an average of 50 tons of gold per month in 2026, significantly higher than the average of 17 tons/month in the period before 2022.
Ms. Lina Thomas and Mr. Daan Struyven - experts at Goldman Sachs Research - believe that gold prices may continue to expand their upward momentum in the second half of 2026, while the increase in the use of gold-related derivatives may make the volatility range of precious metals greater.
Goldman Sachs' latest estimates show that central banks' gold buying activity has accelerated this year.
Based on seasonal adjustments in 3 months, gold purchases by central banks reached about 100 tons/month in June 2026, a sharp increase from 66 tons/month in May. Among the central banks confirmed to buy gold, the People's Bank of China was the largest buyer in June.
Goldman Sachs assesses that central banks' continued accumulation of gold is a long-term trend, thereby creating an important foundation for gold prices even when market corrections appear.
Besides official buying power, expectations for Fed interest rates are also becoming an important factor for the outlook for precious metals.
According to Goldman Sachs, demand from a part of investors is recovering after a period of sluggishness in the first half of the year, as the market adjusts expectations about the possibility of the Fed raising interest rates in 2026.
If pressure from monetary policy continues to decrease, the opportunity cost of holding gold - an unprofitable asset - will decrease accordingly. This may be a factor supporting cash flow to return to the precious metals market.
Not only betting on gold's upward momentum, Goldman Sachs also warned of a factor that could make the market fluctuate more strongly: the increase in demand for gold options.
Investors are using buy options to hedge their portfolios against major fluctuations. As gold prices approach important exercise prices of options, market makers who have sold options may have to buy gold to balance risks.
This activity can create an amplified effect when gold prices rise. Conversely, if gold falls, market regulators can reverse their defensive positions by selling gold, thereby causing pressure to fall more sharply.
This means that the market may experience increasing or decreasing sessions with a larger amplitude than normal.
Goldman Sachs noted that the target of 4,900 USD/ounce by the end of 2026 does not fully include the impact from defense needs through derivative instruments. Therefore, the organization believes that the risk of gold prices exceeding the base forecast is leaning towards increase, but is accompanied by a greater possibility of two-way fluctuations.
With persistent gold buying demand from central banks, prospects for investment cash flow recovery and expectations of gradually decreasing pressure from monetary policy, Goldman Sachs continues to maintain a positive outlook on gold prices in 2026.
The 4,900 USD/ounce mark is therefore becoming one of the notable targets of the market in the remainder of the year.
