The USD remaining at a high level and US Treasury bond yields rebounding are continuing to put pressure on the gold market in the trading session on July 1. In the context of investors adjusting expectations about the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the precious metal has not yet found strong enough momentum to escape the prolonged downward trend for many months.
As of 2:32 PM Vietnam time, spot gold prices fell 1.55%, to 3,963.01 USD/ounce, after falling to 3,942.99 USD/ounce at one point in the previous session, the lowest level since November 2025. US gold futures for August delivery also fell 1.44%, to 3,980.47 USD/ounce.
The current adjustment has pulled gold prices down to the lowest level since November 2025. Compared to the historical peak set at the beginning of the year, gold prices have decreased by about 24%. In the second quarter alone, the precious metal lost about 14% of its value, marking the strongest quarterly decline since 2013 and the fourth consecutive month of decline.
According to experts, market developments currently mainly reflect changes in interest rate expectations in the US. As investors believe that the Fed will continue to maintain a tough stance to control inflation, the attractiveness of gold - an asset that does not yield yields - has also decreased significantly.
Mr. Ilya Spivakv - Head of Global Macro Strategic at Tastylive - said that a strong USD and rising US bond yields are the two factors that have the biggest impact on the trend of gold in the current period. The fact that both indicators are going up is causing the demand for holding precious metals to continue to shrink.
This view was also strengthened after the statement of Ms. Beth Hammack, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. According to her, there is not much evidence that the current interest rate level is strong enough to slow down the US economy, so the Fed may still have to continue raising interest rates if inflationary pressure has not decreased to the target.
The market is currently awaiting Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's speech at the European Central Bank (ECB) Annual Forum in Sintra, Portugal. New signals about the direction of monetary policy management are expected to have a significant impact on the diễn biến of the USD as well as gold prices in the short term.
In addition, a series of data on the US labor market is also attracting the attention of investors. The newly released JOLTS report shows that the number of jobs recruited in May reached 7.594 million, higher than market forecasts and almost unchanged compared to the previous month. This reflects that labor demand remains stable, thereby creating more room for the Fed to continue to prioritize the fight against inflation.
Immediately after the report, the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds increased to about 4.47%, while the USD Index remained around 101.17 points. Both of these factors continued to put pressure on the precious metals market.
In terms of geopolitics, the contact process between the US and Iran has not yet seen a breakthrough. Exchanges in Doha are being maintained but the two sides have not shown signs of moving closer to a comprehensive agreement. Meanwhile, Iran continues to maintain its position on the control of maritime activities through the Strait of Hormuz - an energy transport route of particular importance to the global oil market.
Although oil prices have decreased significantly compared to the escalating tense period, investors are still closely monitoring all developments in the Middle East because any disruption to energy supplies could increase inflationary pressure and reverse Fed policy expectations.
From a technical perspective, the outlook for gold has not shown many signs of improvement. According to Mr. Li Xing Gan, a strategy expert at Exness, the fact that the 50-day moving average cut below the 200-day moving average - the "death cross" model - shows that the long-term downtrend is being strengthened. However, he also noted that the market may still see technical recovery if investor sentiment improves or strong enough supporting information appears.
On the precious metals market, spot silver prices fell 1.74% to 57.54 USD/ounce. Platinum prices lost 0.44%, to 1,546.78 USD/ounce, the lowest level since November 2025, while palladium fell 1.2% to 1,189.69 USD/ounce. At the same time, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index increased by 0.1%, reflecting the strength of the USD is still a significant drag on the precious metals group.
