World gold prices have just closed the trading week with a third consecutive week of increase, after surpassing the 4,600 USD/ounce mark. The upward momentum is supported by the weakening USD, developments in the US bond market and investment demand returning to precious metals.
According to weekly developments, spot gold prices opened around 4,381.12 USD/ounce before increasing sharply. After a correction to the week's lowest level of 4,324.49 USD/ounce at the beginning of the session on August 20, gold quickly reversed direction and broke through the 4,500 USD/ounce mark.
By the end of the week session, spot gold prices at one point reached 4,632.14 USD/ounce - the highest level in the week and maintained above the 4,600 USD/ounce threshold. At the time the analysis was published, spot gold prices traded around 4,602.99 USD/ounce, up 5.27% in the week and up 1.86% in the session.
The upward momentum helped gold record its third consecutive week of increase. Comex gold futures also increased sharply in the week, reflecting the return of buying power on the precious metals market. Market data shows that Comex gold increased by more than 5% in the week and has increased significantly in the past three weeks.
One of the notable drivers is the diễn biến of the USD and US bond yields. The US Treasury Department's move to increase the scale of long-term bond repurchases once dragged yields and the USD down, thereby reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold - an asset that does not yield yields.
Mr. Marc Chandler - CEO of a company specializing in capital markets and foreign exchange trading in the US (Bannockburn Global Forex) - said that gold exceeding the 200-day moving average for the first time in two months is a noteworthy technical signal. According to him, if gold prices maintain a convincing breakthrough above 4,600 USD/ounce, the next target may be the 4,680 USD/ounce zone.
However, this expert also noted that momentum indicators are at a high level after a strong increase, so the market may experience correction or accumulation sessions before establishing the next trend.
The latest survey also shows that market sentiment is strongly leaning towards an upward trend. Among 11 experts participating in the Wall Street survey, 8 people, equivalent to 73%, predict that gold prices will continue to increase next week. The remaining three experts predict that prices will remain flat and no opinion predicts gold will decrease.
The psychology of individual investors is also more positive. In 211 online surveys, 78% predicted gold prices would increase next week, 12% predicted a decrease and 10% thought prices would remain flat.
Mr. Lukman Otunuga - Head of Market Analysis at FXTM - said that gold is maintaining positive momentum after a strong increase in the week. According to him, if gold prices can close stably above 4,600 USD/ounce, the market may head towards the 4,700 USD/ounce zone. Conversely, if weakened below 4,500 USD/ounce, gold prices may retreat to the testing zone of 4,390 USD/ounce, near the 100-day moving average.
Meanwhile, Mr. Alex Kuptsikevich - senior analyst at FxPro - believes that gold still has room to increase in the medium term. This expert believes that the price may head towards 4,800 USD/ounce, but does not rule out the possibility of a short correction after gold increased by nearly 5% in just one week.
Gold's outlook for next week will continue to depend on the diễn biến of the USD, real yields, inflation data and new monetary policy signals. Notably, the PCE core consumer spending price index report and US economic growth data may significantly impact interest rate expectations and thereby affect the trend of precious metals.
Technically, after surpassing the psychological milestone of 4,500 USD/ounce and breaking above 4,600 USD/ounce, gold is facing a new challenge. If buying power is maintained, the 4,680 - 4,700 USD/ounce area may become a near target. Further, some market forecasts are heading towards the 4,800 USD/ounce area, while profit-taking risks are still present after a strong rally.
