The sharp adjustment of gold prices since the beginning of the year is not enough to change the long-term outlook for the precious metal. In the latest research report, the specialized strategic analysis and research department of investment bank JPMorgan Chase (J.P. Morgan Global Research) continues to maintain a positive view, saying that the drivers that once brought gold to record highs are still present and may continue to support the market in the coming years.
This bank forecasts that the average gold price may reach about 6,000 USD/ounce in the fourth quarter of 2026 and aim for 6,300 USD/ounce by the end of 2027.
According to J.P. Morgan, the recent price drop mainly reflects a change in expectations about US monetary policy after the Fed signaled tougher, rather than stemming from the weakening of fundamental factors.
J.P. Morgan believes that the buying power of central banks is still the most important pillar for the gold market. In the context that many economies continue to diversify foreign exchange reserves and reduce dependence on the USD, gold buying demand from the official sector is expected to remain high in the medium and long term.
In addition, the bank believes that investment capital flows may also improve as the interest rate cycle gradually stabilizes. If the USD fluctuates less and expectations of monetary policy cool down, the demand for holding gold as a defensive asset is likely to recover.
From a macroeconomic perspective, J.P. Morgan assesses that the factors that once boosted gold prices sharply in the past have not changed significantly. The large US budget deficit, the trend of fiscal spending expansion, the burden of public debt, geopolitical risks and the process of diversifying central bank reserves continue to lay the foundation for the upward trend of precious metals.
The report also suggests that the diễn biến of the USD will continue to be an important variable for the gold market. In the base scenario, the greenback is forecast to gradually stabilize in the next 6-12 months as the US economy and major economies enter a more balanced phase, thereby reducing pressure on gold prices.
From the above factors, J.P. Morgan believes that the recent adjustment can be seen as a stage of market revaluation rather than a sign of the end of the upward cycle. According to this bank, as monetary policy instability gradually subsides, structural drivers will continue to play a leading role in the long-term gold price trend.
