Driving business profits to flourish
At the end of the fourth quarter of 2024, the net profit of enterprises listed on three exchanges increased by 27.8% over the same period last year, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of growth. The group of large-cap stocks continues to play a leading role, especially VHM with a profit increase of 1,297%, MSN increased by 1,279% and MWG increased by 838%. The real estate industry recorded a strong recovery with revenue increasing by 95.5% and net profit increasing by 70.1%, while the retail and telecommunications sectors continued to maintain impressive growth momentum.
According to Mr. Nguyen Ngoc Hieu - Analysis Department, VNDIRECT Securities Joint Stock Company, the highlight from the 2024 business results is the net profit of all stock groups increased compared to the same period in the fourth quarter of 2024, except for the small-cap group. Notably, large-cap stocks outperformed the mid- and small-cap group, reversing the trend from the beginning of the year.
Sharing the same view, Mr. Tran Hoang Son, Director of Market Strategy at VPBankS Securities, commented: "The market is having a very good supporting foundation from the fourth quarter business results. However, the shaking scenario will rotate around the threshold of 1,275 points and the possibility of accumulation around this area before going up has a probability of occurring up to 70%".
"The fluctuations after Tet are also only short-term adjustments, while the VN-Index still has a strong support zone at 1,250 - 1,260 points. After this fluctuation, the index is likely to retest higher resistance zones, including 1,280 points and may approach 1,300 points," the expert analyzed.
Domestic cash flow is still operating strongly, demonstrated through market liquidity exceeding VND10,000 billion in the morning session of February 10, double the previous sessions. However, net selling from foreign investors with a value of more than VND3,000 billion in the week after Tet is putting pressure on the general trend of the VN-Index. The strong focus of foreign investors on selling stocks such as FPT and VNM reflects concerns about the impact of US tariff policies on export goods, especially the steel industry.
Macro policy is a support for the market
In the context of the global financial market fluctuating, monetary policy and public investment will be two important factors to help the VN-Index maintain growth momentum. The Government sets a GDP growth target of 8% in 2025, leading to an expectation of credit growth of 16 - 18%. This will help banking stocks continue to play a pivotal role, especially when CTG, TCB, MBB are recording positive developments.
Mr. Nguyen Ngoc Hieu commented: " Interest rates in Vietnam have increased to the highest level in the quarters, reflecting the strong recovery of corporate credit demand. This means that businesses with high debt coefficients will face greater pressure, but at the same time, it also opens up opportunities for banks to increase profits from credit activities".
Another important factor to monitor is public investment, when the total social investment capital in 2025 is expected to reach more than 174 billion USD, equivalent to 33.5% of GDP. Of which, public investment accounts for about 36 billion USD, focusing on transportation infrastructure and construction.
Mr. Tran Hoang Son assessed: "If there is strong public investment, the demand for construction and construction materials will continue to increase. Therefore, corporate stocks related to construction, construction and materials have a lot of room to recover in 2025".
However, the possibility of VN-Index surpassing 1,300 points is still uncertain in the first half of the year. Mr. Son predicted: "In 2025, the market may still face an adjustment when it reaches 1,300 points, similar to 2024. According to technical analysis, the VN-Index is forming a range of 1,250 - 1,305 points, so the trading strategy for the first 6 months of the year is to take advantage of trading within this range".
However, the outlook for the second half of the year is still very bright. Mr. Son emphasized: "After August - September, the possibility of the VN-Index surpassing 1,300 points and establishing a new high price zone is very feasible. With a commitment to GDP growth of 8% and expanded credit, the stock market will have more room for growth than in the previous period".
