Why is natural gas so important in this crisis?
Many European countries depend on Russia for natural gas imports and to a lesser extent oil. Leading among them is Germany, Europe's largest economy, a key US ally and an important participants in negotiations on Ukraine.
No country buys more natural gas from Russia than Germany, which relies on fuel to help heat homes in the winter and operate factories.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz visited the White House this week, where negotiations with President Joe Biden on the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia to Germany were the premise and focus. Although still not in operation, the pipeline has long been the focus of some debates between the US and its allies: Germany supports the pipeline, while in the US there are concerns that it could increase Europe's dependence on Russian energy even more.
According to NPR, the Biden administration said the US would block Nord Stream 2 if Russia attacked Ukraine.
How does Europe depend on Russian gas?
More than 38% of the natural gas used by European Union members in 2020 was imported from Russia, according to Eurostat, the EU's statistics agency.
However, across Europe, dependence on Russian gas is very different between countries. Some have barely bought any Russian gas like the UK, or used low natural gas like Sweden.
But other countries especially in Central and Eastern Europe, including those that were once part of the Soviet bloc are almost 100% dependent on Russia for natural gas demand.
Western leaders, both in Europe and the US, have long urged Europe to reduce its dependence on Russia to limit the continent's vulnerability to geopolitical conflicts.
Their use of Russian gas has given President Vladimir Putin great power over European economies, H.R. McMaster, a former US national security adviser, told NPR in an interview last month.
"Following typical Russian styles, they did it in a way that they cannot be accused of violating any trade relationship, but still tried to give a strong reminder to Germany in particular and the rest of Europe in general about how they depend on Russian gas," said David Goldwyn, chairman of energy consultancy Goldwyn Global Strategy.
Meanwhile, President Putin denied accusing Russia of using gas as a political tool, but he also said that if German authorities approve the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, Russia would "start pumping gas the very next day".
What will happen to Europe if Russia shuts off the valve?
A complete cut off of Russian gas to Europe is unlikely - but experts warn that if it does, it will be very painful. Another available option for Russia is to cut gas exports via pipeline in Ukraine - a move that would significantly affect Germany. (Reliance on pipelines in Ukraine is part of Germany's support for Nord Stream 2).
With supply severely affected, Europe's already high energy prices could spike.
"If we receive additional volumes from Norway, Azerbaijan, Qatar and the US, we can build a scenario to deal with a theoretically possible situation if we are completely disrupted by gas flows from Russia," said European Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson at a press conference on February 8.
A short-term solution is to import liquefied natural gas (LNG) from countries such as Qatar and the US. The US has significantly increased LNG exports to Europe in recent years. But experts say that LNG supply will be unlikely to meet all demand in the event of a complete cut-off in Russian gas.
Meanwhile, natural gas alternatives are a challenge. For example, coal is not an attractive solution, as many European countries have made efforts to reduce carbon emissions and deal with climate change.
What is Russia's view on this issue?
In a sense, analysts say that now could be the right time for Mr. Putin to cut down on the limits: Russia has 630 billion USD in gold and foreign exchange reserves, which means the country is likely to endure a shock in revenue in the short term. Meanwhile, gas and oil prices are at a very high level. With gas prices soaring, Russia's natural gas sales have increased to more than $60 billion in 2021.
But just as Europe depends on Russia for gas, Russia depends on Europe for revenue. Europe buys nearly three-quarters of Russia's gas.
"Russia needs oil and gas revenue the same way Europe needs energy. Two-thirds of Russia's export revenue comes from oil and gas, which is equivalent to about half of Russia's budget revenue. So this is a mutual dependence between Russia and Europe," Daleep Singh, the White House's deputy national security adviser on international economics, told the NPR.
