According to the Southern Hydrometeorological Station, for the temperature trend in 3 months, from September to November 2026, most forecast models show that the temperature in the areas is higher than the multi-year average. In September, the common temperature is 0.8-1.3 degrees Celsius higher; October is about 0.5-1.2 degrees Celsius higher.
In which, higher temperatures than the multi-year average are likely to appear in Ca Mau, Dong Thap, the northern eastern region and Lam Dong.
Regarding rainfall trends, in the next 3 months, most of the Southern region is forecast to have lower rainfall than the multi-year average. October is likely to be the time with the clearest rainfall shortage. Overall for the 3 months, rainfall may be about 5-20% lower than the multi-year average. Among them, Tay Ninh and Ca Mau are likely to be the areas with the most rainfall shortage.
According to forecasts, the rainy season in the South is likely to end in the first week to mid-November, about 10-20 days earlier than the multi-year average. However, some areas may end the rainy season earlier than expected.
For the period from December 2026 to February 2027, the ENSO trend is forecast to gradually shift to a neutral state. However, the intensity of El Nino in these months is still likely to be strong to very strong. It is forecast that the area may be affected by about 1-2 storms in the period from December to the first months of next year.
Total rainfall in 3 months is forecast to be approximately or lower than the multi-year average by about 5-10%. Meanwhile, the average temperature continues to be about 0.5-1 degree Celsius higher than the multi-year average in each month.
