According to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, the El Nino phenomenon continues to tend to strengthen with the probability of reaching intensity from strong to very strong at 90% (of which about 42% reach strong intensity and 48% reach very strong intensity).
The average temperature in August 2026 across the country is likely to be 0.5-1.5 degrees Celsius higher than the multi-year average. Hot weather is forecast to continue to occur and increase in intensity in the area from Thanh Hoa - Hue and the South Central Coast, the number of hot days in the Central region may be more than the multi-year average and the same period in 2025. Although the rainfall in August in some areas is forecast to increase, the water source in many river and reservoir basins is still low.
In the North Central region, the average reservoir storage capacity is about 45.5% of the design capacity (Thanh Hoa 69%, Nghe An 55%, Ha Tinh 35%, Quang Tri 26%, Hue 30%).
The Department of Management and Construction of Irrigation Works assessed that the water source ensures supply for agricultural production, but in case of prolonged hot weather, about 1,200-2,200 hectares are affected by drought and water shortage, of which Quang Tri is 1,000-2,000 hectares, and Hue City is 200 hectares.
In the South Central Coast - Central Highlands, the area of crops at risk of being affected is from 2,200-2,700 hectares, concentrated in Quang Ngai and Dak Lak.
Thus, the total area of crops that may face drought and water shortage in August is up to about 3,400-4,900 hectares. Most of the area is located at the end of the irrigation canal system, areas using small reservoirs or areas with limited access to water sources.
Talking to Lao Dong Newspaper, Mr. Nguyen Manh Hung - Head of Operation and Irrigation Management Department - Department of Management and Construction of Irrigation Works - said that from the beginning of the year to now, the water source situation serving agricultural production in general is still within the control of the irrigation system. Many irrigation reservoirs are having relatively positive capacity compared to the average of many years. However, water sources have clear differentiation between regions, basins and each project. Medium and large reservoirs have relatively high storage levels, but small reservoirs have low storage levels, some reservoirs have run out of water, or some areas far from irrigation works, at the end of canals, water sources are scarce.
We determine that forecasting water sources in irrigation works is a continuous task that needs to be done, not only a general forecast for the whole region, but also building specific scenarios for each province, each irrigation system for each production season. The scenario is built based on rain forecasts, the amount of water stored in the reservoir at the beginning of the season, the water supply capacity of each system and the level of drought and water shortage risk. From these scenarios, localities have a basis to decide on the sowing schedule, planting area, crop structure and water distribution plan. Where water is sufficient, normal production is organized. Where water is not guaranteed, it is necessary to extend, postpone the crop season or switch to crops that use less water" - Mr. Hung informed.
This approach helps directing and operating work shift from passive response to proactive prevention.
The Department of Irrigation Works Management and Construction is also developing detailed scenarios of El Nino's impact on agricultural production based on information on the possible occurrence of El Nino provided by the Department of Meteorology and Hydrology to report to the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment to direct the plan to prevent and combat drought and saltwater intrusion for the 2026-2027 dry season.
The Department continues to support localities in implementing solutions to ensure water for production and living. Irrigation units are recommended to ensure project safety, monitor floods and proactively store water for the dry season.
Water level Hundreds of reservoirs in eastern Quang Ngai lowered due to El Nino
The capacity of many irrigation reservoirs in eastern Quang Ngai province is decreasing, increasing the risk of irrigation water shortage in the summer-autumn crop and extending to the 2026-2027 winter-spring crop.
Talking to a reporter of Lao Dong Newspaper, Mr. Nham Xuan Sy - Deputy Director of Quang Ngai Provincial Hydrometeorological Station - said that the capacity of irrigation reservoirs in the eastern area of the province currently only reaches an average of about 34% of the design.
The reason is the impact of El Nino, causing hot weather to appear early and last longer, while rainfall is much lower than the multi-year average. The flow on rivers and streams is also decreasing, affecting the ability to store and supply water for production, especially in the southern delta area of the province.
Some lakes are at very low levels. Hoc Sam Lake, Mo Duc commune, only reaches about 6% capacity; Liet Son Lake, Duc Pho ward, reaches 15%; Nui Ngang Lake, Ba Dong commune, reaches 27%.
According to Mr. Sy, El Nino is forecast to continue to be maintained and gradually strengthen from now until the end of 2026, especially in about October-December, coinciding with the rainy season. If rainfall continues to be deficient, water sources serving the 2026-2027 winter-spring crop and the next summer-autumn crop will be greatly affected.
Faced with this risk, localities need to proactively stockpile water, develop drought prevention plans early; review areas that do not ensure irrigation sources to switch to drought-tolerant crops. Water regulation must simultaneously meet production and living needs.
According to the Quang Ngai Provincial Sub-Department of Irrigation, the eastern area of the province has 127 reservoirs. The capacity of the reservoirs currently reaches an average of more than 31% of the design, showing that the risk of water shortage is becoming increasingly clear.
Dong Giang
