Reduced birth rates, existing population aging pressure
According to a report by the Population Department (Ministry of Health), the average life expectancy of Vietnamese people is estimated at 74.7 years, exceeding the set target, showing positive improvements in health care and quality of life. The sex ratio at birth is maintained at 111 boys/100 girls, although it meets the target, it is still higher than the natural balance threshold, posing a risk of imbalance in the future.
Notably, the total fertility rate nationwide in 2025 is estimated to reach 1.93 children/woman, not yet reaching the replacement fertility rate. This figure clearly reflects the trend of fewer births and late births that is continuing and tending to spread.
Director of the Department of Population (Ministry of Health) Le Thanh Dung worried: The trend of "fear of having children" not only appears in large cities but also spreads to many localities that used to have high birth rates. The main reasons come from the pressure of childcare costs, jobs, as well as changes in young people's living perceptions. Meanwhile, the rate of population aging is increasing rapidly, posing a risk of labor shortage and increasing the burden of social security in the near future.
Need more long-term "levers
Forecasts show that if the low birth rate trend continues, Vietnam will end its golden population period in 2036. By 2044, the working-age population will begin to decline and from 2051, the population may grow negatively. In the period 2069-2074, the average reduction is forecast to be about 461,000 people per year.
Faced with this pressure, maintaining the replacement fertility rate is considered an urgent requirement to ensure human resources and stabilize socio-economic development in the long term. Deputy Minister of Health Do Xuan Tuyen said that the Ministry of Health has just proposed to the Government to provide financial support for women giving birth to save the decline in the birth rate nationwide.
According to the proposal, women who give birth to three groups: Very small ethnic minorities, living in localities with low birth rates and having two children before the age of 35 will be supported with 2 million VND/birth. The expenditure is guaranteed by the local budget, the province can decide on a higher level. People from many areas are entitled to policies at the same time; cases that are receiving social allowances are still supported.
The draft stipulates that female workers who have a second child are entitled to 7 months of leave, and male workers whose wives have children are entitled to 10 working days of leave. Dossiers are submitted to the commune-level People's Committee (directly, by mail or online), resolved within 5 days if conditions are met; support money is paid once for a maximum of 6 months after birth.
The Ministry of Health proposes to support 1.5 million VND/case for prenatal and postnatal screening (900,000 VND prenatal, 600,000 VND newborn), in order to detect common congenital diseases early. The funding is paid once for a maximum of 3 months.
At the same time, the draft also proposes measures to minimize the situation of fetal gender selection, through strengthening communication, perfecting policies to enhance women's position and tightening inspection and handling of violations. Notably, the policy also targets the elderly, especially lonely, seriously ill, and unable to access medical services. The State encourages the participation of the community, businesses and social organizations in caring for the elderly at home and in the community.
In the context of the population entering a period of rapid aging, these proposals are expected to create a double "push": Both encouraging having enough two children and improving population quality, ensuring resources for sustainable development.
