According to real estate experts, in the past 12 months, land prices in many areas along Hanoi Ring Road 4 have increased dramatically, in some places up to 50-70%. This is a clear sign of a "virtual fever" with many potential risks.
Many land plots with strong price inflation are actually still stuck in suspended planning, lack of infrastructure or are outside the urban development orientation in the short and medium term. The real value has not increased, but market expectations have been pushed too far.
Mr. Nguyen Anh Dung (residing in Me Tri, Nam Tu Liem, Hanoi) said that in 2024, he bought a plot of land in an alley about 3m wide in Tien Yen commune (Hoai Duc district) for 40 million VND/m2. Up to now, similar plots of land have been advertised for sale at prices of 60-70 million VND/m2. According to Mr. Dung, this price is mainly due to the effect of the Ring Road 4 project passing through the area.
Along with that, some communes in Hoai Duc district such as Duong Lieu and Duc Thuong - where the belt route passes through - also recorded a strong price increase. The land market in other districts where this route passes through such as Soc Son, Me Linh, Thuong Tin... is no exception. In Hoang Kim commune (Me Linh district), land has increased from 20 million VND/m2 to nearly 30 million VND/m2 in just over a year. Some plots near major roads are being offered for sale at prices of up to 35-40 million VND/m2.
Mr. Do Van Thach - representative of Dova Land Real Estate Company said that most of the current increase does not come from internal value or actual infrastructure improvement, but comes from the brokerage "creating waves": collecting land, pushing prices, spreading information in one direction, then selling for profit, pushing risks to inexperienced investors.
Mr. Do Van Thach cited that a 73m2 plot of land on Phan Xich Street was advertised for sale at nearly 15.5 billion VND (equivalent to about 212 million VND/m2). The landowner also expects the price to reach 350 million VND/m2. In Phung town, land on Nguyen Thai Hoc street (old National Highway 32.) also recorded prices exceeding 200 million VND/m2. However, most investors are still in a state of waiting and cautiously putting money down because they are worried that the market will be "inflated".
Investors should be alert, should only pour capital into areas with clear legal status, feasible infrastructure and real population potential. Avoid borrowing capital to 'surf' short-term in the context of tightened credit and a clearly differentiated market. Investing in real estate at this stage needs to have a medium- and long-term vision, should not be a crowd- effect game, Mr. Thach shared.
Mr. Nguyen The Diep - Vice President of Hanoi Real Estate Club - commented that when development projects around Ring Road 4 are implemented simultaneously, real estate prices in this area may continue to increase. However, he warned: Not all infrastructure will ensure real estate prices increase. Investors need to carefully assess the potential and time of capital recovery". Land prices around Ring Road 4 have increased rapidly in recent times, but the increase in the future will follow a long-term trend. In the short term, investors will find it difficult to make immediate profits if their long-term investment goals are not clearly defined, said Mr. Diep.
Dr. Nguyen Van Dinh - Chairman of the Vietnam Association of Realtors (VARS) - also warned about the situation where some interest groups release price inflation, creating waves only for the purpose of market manipulation. Investors need to be alert, carefully research planning, legality and liquidity to avoid the risk of burying capital, Mr. Dinh emphasized.
According to Mr. Dinh, when deciding to invest capital, it is necessary to pay special attention to two factors: real room for price increase and infrastructure implementation progress. Lessons from many previous land fevers show that many people have "hit the peak" and are stuck in uncalculated investments.
