Housing supply improves
According to experts, one of the important factors helping the real estate market to gradually stabilize is the improvement in apartment supply, especially in Hanoi.
Mr. Matthew Powell - Director of Savills Hanoi Consulting and Research Department - predicted that in 2025, Hanoi is expected to have an additional 25,200 apartments, of which the B-class segment accounts for 88% of the total supply. From 2026 onwards, Hanoi will have about 70,000 new apartments from 91 projects, mainly concentrated in Dong Anh, Hoai Duc and Hoang Mai with a total supply accounting for 52% of the market share. These are areas with a high urbanization rate, benefiting from large infrastructure projects such as beltways and metro systems, creating conditions for strong development in the coming years.
Another bright spot is that the total cash flow of the industry has increased by 46% over the same period, reaching the highest level in the past 5 years. This is thanks to strong cash flow from investment and financial activities, especially businesses increasing the mobilization of bank loans, conducting M&A deals and share transfers.
According to Mr. Duong Duc Hieu - Director - Senior Analyst at VIS Rating: "Although investors' revenue and cash flow have shown signs of improvement, profits are still under great pressure from financial costs and legal backlogs."
However, the outlook in 2025 is still quite optimistic when new housing supply increases, combined with improved market sentiment, which will boost sales and support the financial situation of businesses.
" Cheap money" and investment opportunities
According to Mr. Nguyen Van Dinh - Chairman of the Vietnam Association of Realtors (VARS), the real estate market may welcome many investment waves in the coming time when credit is loose, the "cheap money" flow is pumped out in the context of the market gradually recovering.
Although there has not been a move to reduce operating interest rates, deposit interest rates have decreased quite rapidly recently, after the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) requested commercial banks to rectify the increase in deposit interest rates in the market.
Mr. Dinh believes that cheap cash flow will certainly find investment channels with good profit potential and the ability to store assets for a long time. With gold rising to record highs and fluctuating strongly, real estate and stocks will be the top choice for cash flow to take shelter. In particular, real estate - which is sensitive to currency cycles - can soon react to interest rate cuts, creating a new wave of investment in the coming time.
The absorption rate in 2025 is expected to remain above 70% although the absorption rate has slowed down due to high and rapid price increases in some areas and segments. At the same time, real estate prices also have many increasing drivers in the context of impending inflationary pressure.
Despite the loosening of credit policy, banks still maintain control over real estate-related loans. Real estate businesses with projects that are not eligible to open for sale or rely too much on financial leverage will have more difficulty accessing capital. In contrast, businesses with good financial health, project implementation capacity and high adaptability will have a greater opportunity during this period.
The real estate market in 2025 is showing many positive signs when supply improves, investment cash flow returns and credit policies are adjusted appropriately. Enterprises with good financial potential and appropriate business strategies will have the opportunity to grasp the momentum of recovery and market expansion in the coming period.
