DKRA Consulting's Q1/2026 market research report in Ho Chi Minh City and surrounding areas shows that consumption in all segments of the real estate market is declining.
In the primary market in the land plot segment, the general demand of the market is maintained at a low level, consumption volume only reached about 3% of the total primary supply and decreased by about 50% compared to Q4/2025.In parallel, in the townhouse/villa segment, the market transaction volume decreased by about 44%.Notably, market liquidity is only locally concentrated in the Ho Chi Minh City area when accounting for up to 87% of the total primary consumption.
The type of resort real estate recorded market demand maintained at a low level, liquidity recorded a significant decrease under the impact of high interest rates and credit tightening policies, with a decrease of more than 70% compared to the previous quarter.
The townhouse/shophouse resort segment with market demand continues to decline sharply, transaction volume decreased by more than 87% compared to Q4/2025.With the condotel segment, consumption volume decreased by 85% compared to Q4/2025.
This development is similar to the report of market research unit Knight Frank Vietnam stating that Ho Chi Minh City recorded about 1,580 apartments successfully traded in Q1/2026, the absorption rate reached 36%, down nearly 66% compared to the previous quarter.
Mr. Vo Hong Thang, Deputy General Director of DKRA Consulting, said that key segments such as apartments and landed houses from after Tet to now recorded purchasing power only equal to 20-30% at the end of last year.Pre-orders at many projects being implemented decreased by half, while the number of deposit contracts that cannot be transferred to officials due to home buyers changing decisions increases.
Many experts assess that the level of recovery will largely depend on interest rate developments and credit policies.In a positive scenario, when interest rates fall sharply, supply may increase by 40-50%, absorption rates may recover to 50-60%.However, the probability of occurrence is not high due to many macroeconomic factors.
The neutral scenario is assessed to have a higher probability, with supply increasing by 30-40%, interest rates maintained at 10-12% and absorption rates may reach 30-40%.In unfavorable cases, when interest rates continue to be high, the market may only record absorption rates below 20%.
With real estate credit still being tightly controlled but interest rates showing signs of cooling down compared to the first quarter, the market is likely to operate in a neutral scenario.This makes the real estate market, although not yet able to enter a hot growth cycle, move to a more selective development phase.
Stepping into the second quarter of 2026, the forecast trend of shrinking supply continues to be maintained, even more clearly when the amount of new goods put on the market is still modest.DKRA Group experts assess that investors are more cautious in deciding to open product sales amidst the context of "stuck" credit room, high interest rates and complex geopolitical instability in the world.
Notably, the land plot segment almost "freezes" new supply, with only about 300-400 products expected to open for sale in the second quarter - a very low level compared to the volume of goods circulating in the market, with the majority being the next phases of old projects, instead of completely new projects.
Mr. Troy Griffiths - Senior Advisor, Savills HCMC assessed that the real estate market is somewhat "cooling down" in the first months of 2026 due to interruptions due to holidays and tighter credit conditions.This has caused many investors to temporarily postpone sales plans.The supply structure continues to put pressure on affordability, when the high-end segment accounts for nearly 2/3 of the new supply and is mainly concentrated in the East of HCMC before.The number of openings is also limited, pulling down the primary supply accordingly.
Preferential loan interest rates have now increased to 8-9%/year and floating interest rates may exceed 12%/year. This increases cash flow pressure on the group of borrowers when the preferential period ends, while continuing to hinder the ability to absorb real estate in the short term," Mr. Troy Griffiths said.
