The real estate market research report just released by DKRA Consulting shows that the absorption rate of the Ho Chi Minh City market began to show signs of slowing down after the Lunar New Year, decreasing by 50-60% compared to the previous quarter.
Accordingly, key segments such as apartments and townhouses from after Tet to now recorded purchasing power only equal to 20-30% at the end of 2025. Pre-orders at many projects being implemented have halved, while the number of deposit contracts that cannot be transferred to official contracts due to homebuyers changing decisions has increased.
The Ho Chi Minh City market report of Knight Frank unit shows that in the first quarter of 2026, Ho Chi Minh City recorded about 1,580 successful apartment transactions, the absorption rate reached about 36% of the total primary supply offered for sale in the quarter. This figure decreased by nearly 66% compared to the previous quarter, when the market recorded about 4,600 transactions and an absorption rate of 47%.
Regarding the high-end apartment segment and above, data research from JLL Vietnam also shows that in the first quarter of 2026, it decreased by about 16.6% compared to the previous quarter, while new supply decreased sharply by more than 26% compared to the end of last year.
According to general assessments from research units, there are two main reasons. The first is that the supply of new sales has decreased sharply and is too focused on the high-end segment and above, while the main demand of the market is the affordable commercial housing segment, which is still very scarce.
In the first quarter of 2026, Ho Chi Minh City had about 4,000 new apartments for sale, down 87% compared to the previous quarter, especially the central area with only more than 800 apartments, of which nearly 90% belonged to the high-end and luxury segments. The number of projects eligible for sale is not large, causing the source of goods to the market to be small.
The second reason is that high interest rate pressure makes homebuyers "shocked". The continuous increase in deposit interest rates is pulling home loan interest rates up significantly, currently commonly around 10 - 14%/year. This development puts many borrowers under great financial pressure when entering the floating phase, with financial costs increasing rapidly beyond expectations.
Faced with that development, many real estate businesses are continuing to support interest rates, extend payment schedules, and even commit to compensating for the floating interest rate difference for homebuyers. However, bearing part of the interest rate for homebuyers means that businesses have to accept reducing profit margins or allocating costs to selling prices. This creates significant pressure on cash flow, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises.
Businesses with large inventories will face pressure to sell quickly, while units with limited supply can proactively optimize profits. This difference is leading to a clear differentiation process in the market.
It is worth mentioning that although purchasing power decreased sharply, the housing price level still maintained an upward trend. Information from JLL said that in the first quarter of 2026, the primary price of the high-end apartment segment in Ho Chi Minh City was at 4, 148 USD/m2 (equivalent to 109 million VND/m2). Some projects continued to adjust prices upwards in the new sale phase, pushing the average price level in Ho Chi Minh City to nearly 110 million VND/m2.
Even in newly merged areas such as Binh Duong and Ba Ria - Vung Tau, the price level is also set at a higher level. These areas supplement supply in the mid-range and affordable segments, contributing to creating price differences between regions, but not enough to reduce the general level.
The average primary selling price in these localities currently reaches about 60 million VND/m2, while supply below 40 million VND/m2 is increasingly scarce. Instead, the market recorded an increase in projects positioned in the high-end segment, with popular prices in the range of 60-80 million VND/m2, thereby continuing to push the general price level up.
