According to the estimate of Avison Young Vietnam Service Consulting Company, in the last three months of the year, Ho Chi Minh City plans to record 15 - 17 projects implementing sales, with a total of 12,000 - 13,000 new products for sale, of which 60% of the supply is concentrated in the old Binh Duong. The supply in the fourth quarter of 2025 is assessed to be quite diverse, with the mid-range and affordable segments dominating the newly merged areas, while the high-end and luxury product line is still mainly concentrated in the core area of Ho Chi Minh City.
The trend of scarcity of housing supply in the inner city area makes it likely that apartment prices in Ho Chi Minh City will continue to increase, especially when most of the projects opened for sale are in the high-end and luxury segments, with common prices above 100 million VND/m2.
DKRA Consulting's market report also stated that in the fourth quarter of 2025, the supply of apartments will fluctuate with 13,000 products and nearly 1,000 townhouses, mainly concentrated in the East and South of Ho Chi Minh City. Of which, the high-end and luxury apartment group accounts for about 3,000 - 5,000 products, still playing a leading role in the central area, while the suburbs will provide the majority of new goods in the mid-range and affordable groups.
Meanwhile, the affordable segment, which is considered the "backbone" of the market, has almost disappeared for the past three years. According to reviews from brokers, transactions in the market mainly come from customers who already own more than one real estate, have a need to invest or accumulate assets. Some investors combine distribution floors into drop-off goods, creating a fake scarcity to stimulate FOMO psychology. The market also has a group of speculators who collect and deposit to enjoy the difference, especially in the southern area of the city.
Sharing at the recent market report announcement event, Mr. Vo Huynh Tuan Kiet - Director of CBRE Vietnam Housing Department - said that the new supply in the inner city of Ho Chi Minh City (formerly Ho Chi Minh City) is currently operating in the direction of serving investment needs, not real housing needs. Most investors determine that buyers will not live but only hold or lease, so the products are positioned at a higher level to maximize profits.
"With the current price level, cash flow in the market is almost only circulating between investors, while buyers for living have a hard time accessing it," Mr. Kiet commented.
According to CBRE, in the last quarter, 90% of the supply opened for sale in the inner city was in the high-end segment, with an average price of VND87 million/m2, an increase of 31% over the same period last year. The market is almost devoid of apartments under VND60 million/m2, common price of VND80-120 million/m2.
The product structure also clearly shows the dominating investment trend: Projects prioritize small-area apartments, luxurious designs, focusing on utilities and short-term rental capabilities. Many investors have also launched "profit commitment" or "cash flow guarantee" packages - a message to financial investors more than home buyers.
Although realizing that the real housing demand is still high, many businesses are still not interested in developing the low-cost segment. When asked, many real estate businesses said that if they build affordable housing, the profit margin is very thin while the procedures are complicated. On the contrary, mid-range and high-end projects are more easily available for capital, sold to investors and created faster brand effects.
Experts warn that if the market continues to be dominated by short-term investment cash flow, the risk of strong fluctuations is inevitable. As buyers are increasingly few, the market is experiencing an imbalance between supply and demand, prices are pushed up but not associated with real demand, leading to the risk of bubbles.
