Real estate market liquidity declines due to high interest rates and house prices

Bảo Chương |

Ho Chi Minh City - Rising interest rates in the context of house prices continuing to remain high are creating great pressure on buyers' ability to pay.

According to reporters of Lao Dong newspaper, preferential home purchase loan interest rates are currently commonly from 8.5 - 11% per year, applied for 6-12 months depending on the bank and credit package. It is worth mentioning that after the preferential period, most loans switch to floating interest rates, calculated according to the base interest rate or reference interest rate plus a margin of about 3.3 - 3.5%. Thus, the interest rate borrowers pay is currently commonly 13 - 15% per year.

High interest rates make many borrowers "grimace". Ms. Tu Tran, residing in An Phu ward, Ho Chi Minh City, said that in 2025 she and her husband borrowed 1.5 billion VND from the bank for 35 years to buy an apartment. At that time, the preferential interest rate offered by the bank was only 7.8%/year, and the principal and interest she had to pay was only 11 - 12 million VND per month.

With a total salary of nearly 40 million VND/month for both husband and wife, it is just enough to pay off debts and living expenses. However, recently after the incentives expired, she was notified by the bank that the floating interest rate was increased to 14%/year and she did not know when it would stop. This is causing her family to be tense because the cost will increase by an additional amount of money.

Many homebuyers also consider the solution of repaying debts ahead of schedule, and then borrowing from another bank. But in reality, this is not easy to do because it is entangled in a series of barriers such as having to bear debt repayment penalties ahead of schedule, and having to have a source of borrowing to repay debts.

Rising interest rates in the context of house prices continuing to remain high are creating great pressure on buyers' ability to pay. Financial pressure is clearly reflected in the market liquidity in the past quarter.

According to data from some market research companies, when the popular interest rate level is at 9-11% in 2025, the absorption rate of new supply reaches about 45-50%. When interest rates increased to 12-14% in the first half of this year, the absorption rate decreased to 20-30%, showing that buyers are increasingly cautious about escalating capital costs.

Not only that, the expectation of "going to the suburbs to buy affordable houses" is also becoming more difficult for many real buyers as the apartment price level here continuously sets new thresholds. Areas that were once considered "low-lying areas", alternative choices for the inner city such as old Binh Duong, Binh Chanh, old Binh Tan, Hoc Mon..., are currently recording new supply in the mid-to-high-end segment, with prices close to the inner city area.

Avison Young Vietnam's Q2/2026 market report recently showed that Ho Chi Minh City after the merger recorded nearly 12,000 new primary apartments for sale. About 60% of the supply is concentrated in the old Binh Duong area, with an average selling price of 53-76 million VND/m2. With the above price level, most of the new baskets are classified into the near-high-end and high-end segments.

In the context of high house prices, interest rates will continue to be a decisive factor in the market's recovery ability. PropertyGuru's consumer psychology report shows that more than 80% of homebuyers and investors only accept borrowing to buy real estate when the interest rate is below 9% per year. In which, for the majority of buyers, the most suitable interest rate is from 5-9% per year, and most will stop using financial leverage if the loan interest rate exceeds 11% or more.

Bảo Chương
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