Can Man United's victory be shocking?
The upcoming Manchester derby will be a confrontation between the third-placed team in the Premier League last season, who spent more than 150 million pounds on new players, with the 15th-placed team also investing a lot but still having many problems.
However, Manchester United could well create a surprise, especially in this match, when they accounted for 25% of Pep Guardiola's total home defeats in the Premier League. That includes four wins at the Etihad and a spectacular comeback in December last year.
In general, away wins often appear in Manchester derbies. Since 2015-16, the home side have won just six of their 20 Premier League games in this competition (D4 L10), behind only Crystal Palace vs Liverpool in away wins.
The Red Devils have also played impressively recently, with a 4-match unbeaten streak against Man City in all competitions, including a victory in the FA Cup final in May 2024.
Meanwhile, Guardiola has had his worst start in the Premier League, with only 3/9 maximum points and the possibility of missing 10 first-team players, including Omar Marmoush.
Is Man City's poor form not new?
Man City's poor start to the season has not been too surprising, as their poor form has lasted for some time.
Based on the performance of the last 38 matches in the Premier League, The Citizens have only 65 points, ranked fourth and 19 points behind Liverpool. This is also their lowest average finish since November 2016, when Guardiola had only led 11 matches. The real reason comes from the series of matches under Manuel Pellegrini in his final season in charge of the club.
During his time in England, Guardiola lost 49 of his three Premier League games (247 wins, 49 draws), but 22% of those have come since the start of November last year. Another defeat would see him increase to 50 losses, behind only Sir Alex Ferguson (367).
Why is Man City optimistic?
Despite facing many difficulties, Man City is still a much stronger team. Just a few weeks ago, they easily crushed Wolves 4-0.
After that, The Citizens had two poor results against Spurs and Brighton. However, they still have one of the most talented squads in Europe, with players who will soon shine.
The current Premier League rankings are not very positive for the Etihad team. They have dropped to 13th place after 2 losses in 3 matches.
Man City's xG data from their games shows that they were very unlucky to have only won 3 points. In fact, if all matches in the Premier League this season end xG, The Citizens will be fourth.
Can Man United exploit Man City's weaknesses?
As Tottenham proved with the opening goal at the Etihad and then Brighton's decisive goal last week, there is still space behind Man City's defense to exploit.
They always push the opponent as high as possible. Only three teams have caught more offside errors than Man City (6) in the Premier League this season. And they also almost led in this category last season.
Bryan Mbeumo could be the key to making the most of Man United's space. The "Red Devils" are the team with the most shots behind the opponent's defense in the Premier League this season (131). And Mbeumo is also the player who has made the most runs away from the ball (54).
3 out of 5 players with the most shots in a match this season have belonged to Mbeumo. He also led the league last season in this statistic when he was playing for Brentford with 418 runs.
Amad Diallo scored the decisive goal in this match last season with a run from the back of the right wing. Therefore, The Citizens will have to be especially vigilant with Mbeumo's travel this weekend.
