Man City is weak in midfield, Liverpool is strong in counter-attack
Without Rodri in the centre of midfield, Man City are too easy to beat. The 0-4 loss to Tottenham last round showed that Man City are very vulnerable to teams that play good counter-attacks. That is Liverpool's specialty.
Liverpool have had more shots from quick counter-attacks (20) than any other Premier League side this season and are second only to Spurs (9) for goals from such situations (5). Man City will need to find a way to break up those counter-attacks at Anfield.
Could Liverpool's left flank be a weak point?
Liverpool have been a pretty complete team this season. They have conceded just eight goals in 12 games so far. The Reds have won 17 of their 19 games under Slot.
Liverpool's weakness may lie on their left flank. Andy Robertson is not as solid and reliable as he has been in recent years. In the last two games, Robertson has made mistakes that led to penalties in the matches against Southampton and Real Madrid. Fortunately, Liverpool have won both of those matches.
For Man City, they have Savinho who promises to cause Robertson problems. Among players who have played more than 500 minutes in the Premier League this season, Savinho leads the way in chances created from open play (2.7 per 90), ranks second in expected assists (0.44 per 90) and ranks third in successful dribbles (3.4 per 90). That could be the clue for Man City to find a goal against Liverpool.
Man City's fragile defense
Only Ipswich Town (49), Southampton (44), Leicester City (44) and Crystal Palace (38) have faced more big chances in the Premier League this season than Man City (37). A “big chance” is defined by Opta as one where an attacking player would normally be expected to score.
However, since Rodri picked up an injury against Arsenal on September 22, Man City have had the most big chances in the Premier League (30 in seven games).
City's problems could be a particular problem for Liverpool, who have scored the second-most goals in the Premier League this season (24). Arne Slot's side also have the second-highest xG (expected goals) per shot in the league (0.13), behind only Brentford (0.15).
The role of stars
The last time Ruben Dias played for Man City in the league was also the last time they won 1-0 against Southampton on 26/10.
Correlation does not necessarily mean causation, but Guardiola will hope it does if the Portuguese centre-back is fit to play at Anfield.
In the 126 Premier League matches that Ruben Dias has participated in since September 2020, Man City have won 76.2%, gained 2.4 points/match and conceded only 0.8 goals/match when the Portuguese player was present.
In 36 games without Dias, Man City won just 61.1%, picked up 2.0 points per game and conceded 1.1 goals per game.
Dias' presence would bring much more calm and organisation to the champions' defence, something they need more than ever right now.
One player who is almost certain to feature in the Liverpool squad is Mohamed Salah. As well as having the most combined goals and assists in the Premier League this season (16), Salah’s goals have earned Liverpool 17 points – the highest ratio in the league.
The Egyptian striker also has a great record against City, scoring seven goals and providing four assists in 14 Premier League appearances for Liverpool.
In contrast, Erling Haaland has a poor record against Liverpool, scoring just once in three meetings, the winner in a 1-1 draw at the Etihad last season. Haaland has also scored at Anfield, but that was for Salzburg in the Champions League in October 2019.
Home advantage
Liverpool vs Man City is a game that tends to favour the home team. The visitors have won just six of the 54 Premier League meetings between the sides – the lowest percentage of any fixture played more than 30 times in the competition’s history (11%).
Anfield is a particularly difficult place for Man City. They have won just one of their last 21 Premier League games at Liverpool (D7 L13), beating Liverpool 4-1 in February 2021 – when fans were not allowed into the stadium due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
The Liverpool vs Man City match will take place at 23:00 on December 1.
