Thailand team has the right to self-determination
Two 10-0 victories over Timor Leste and 1-0 over Malaysia helped the Thai team firmly hold the top spot in the group (6 points). On the plus side, poor results from direct competitors gave coach Masatada Ishii and his team the chance to enter the semi-finals one round early.
Accordingly, if they defeat Singapore in the match taking place on December 17, the team from the Golden Temple will gain 9 points after 3 rounds. This achievement is enough for Thailand to definitely advance, regardless of the result in the final round against Cambodia 3 days later. In case Thailand does not lose to Cambodia or Singapore does not win against Malaysia in the final round, Suphanat and his teammates will automatically top the group.
Another very feasible condition for Thailand to secure the No. 1 position on the rankings is that their goal difference is higher than Singapore's (if Singapore wins Malaysia in the final round). Currently, the "War Elephants" have a good secondary index representing the Lion Island (+11 compared to +4). Not to mention, they will certainly increase the gap if they win against this opponent in the third round. Therefore, the story of Thailand entering the semi-finals early, even securing the top spot in the table, is reasonable.
The right to self-determination brings many values to the Thai team. Coach Ishii and his team have more time to prepare better, especially when the time between the remaining 2 matches in the group stage is only 3 days. The only thing Thailand cannot proactively do is determine the opponent in the semi-finals, because this team is in group A and finished the group stage 1 day before group B.
Unpredictable Singapore, Malaysia, Cambodia
Apart from Thailand's 99% chance of advancing, plus Timor Leste's elimination, the remaining ticket in Group B is an unpredictable competition between Singapore, Malaysia, and Cambodia. The biggest advantage currently belongs to Singapore, as the Lion Island team made the most of the 2 matches against the "underdogs". The victory over Cambodia and Timor Leste helped Singapore gain 6 absolute points, creating a solid psychological foundation before entering the 2 important matches against Thailand and Malaysia.
Singapore of course has the right to decide. If they beat Thailand in the next round, they will have an early ticket to the semi-finals. Even if they do not beat this opponent, Singapore still has a good chance of reaching the semi-finals. Accordingly, in case they do not lose to Malaysia, plus Cambodia cannot get all 6 points in the remaining 2 rounds, Singapore will continue.
Malaysia should blame themselves after the past 3 matches at the ASEAN Cup 2024. The disastrous 2-2 draw against Cambodia and the goalkeeper's regrettable mistake leading to a 0-1 defeat against Thailand put the "Malaysian Tigers" at a disadvantage. At the moment, Malaysia only has 4 points after 3 matches, all their hopes are pinned on the match against Singapore on December 20.
Before that, coach Pau Marti's team also had to hold their breath waiting for the result between Singapore and Thailand to determine their situation. If Singapore wins against Thailand, the door to self-determination for Malaysia will no longer exist, because at that time, Singapore will have entered the semi-finals. Only if Singapore does not win against Thailand, can Malaysia hope to squeeze through the narrow door.
Meanwhile, Cambodia’s chances of causing a surprise are even lower than Malaysia’s. After 2 matches, they have only 1 point. Looking at the group stage, the “Angkor Warriors” need to ensure 2 conditions. First, they need to beat both Thailand and Timor Leste to get 7 points overall.
Second, the two matches involving Singapore must be favorable to Cambodia. In case Singapore loses to Thailand and fails to beat Malaysia; or Singapore draws with Thailand and loses to Malaysia, at least one of the two teams Singapore and Malaysia will have the same 7 points as Cambodia. In that case, Cambodia will advance if they have a better goal difference.
The most favorable case is that Singapore wins Thailand and Malaysia. Then, Cambodia will definitely be in second place with 7 points, more than both Thailand and Malaysia in the end.
