Manchester United is the first English team to win the treble. And they have done that by averaging fewer Premier League points against Aston Villa this season under Unai Emery.
After 13 matches this season, Aston Villa are on average at 2.15 points/match. Man United won the treble with an average score of 2.00. In fact, six other Premier League champions have an average of fewer points per game than Villa currently have. No team has won points equal to or higher than Villa's current rate of being ranked 3rd. In addition, no team above the 2-point average for each match is outside the Top 4.
With Saudi Arabia taking over Newcastle, the "Big Six" including the Premier League's top teams have become the "Big Seven". And the door to the Top 4 is getting harsher than ever. Since Leicester City won the tournament in 2016, no team outside the "Big Seven" has qualified for the Champions League.
Villa are on their journey to qualify for next season's Champions League. So how did they get there and how far will they go?
Although they are tied with Liverpool in third place and only two points behind leaders Arsenal, that does not accurately reflect Villa's true form this season.
In terms of attack, they have scored 28 goals not including penalties. That is the second best result in the tournament. Compared to any team that was 4th in the Premier League, this is the second best scoring ratio per match after Liverpool in the 2017-2019 season.
That total comes from 23.5 goals expected without penalties (xG). Basically, it is still the third best attack in the league after Liverpool and Newcastle. It can be said that Villa is one of the best attacking teams in the tournament.
At that time, the main problem will be the defense, where they have conceded 18 goals excluding penalties from 18.4 xG. Emery has chosen a somewhat different playing style and in the long run, that will not work.
They are holding a very high defensive line, as evidenced by the fact that they have offside their opponents 63 times - 20 times more than any other team in the Premier League.
While Villa only allowed their opponents to have the third few shots in the league (10.8 per 90 minutes), they allowed their opponents to take second-highest shots (0.132 xG per shot).
By operating the current Villa, they will be limited by the quality of the squad. The Villa Park team continuously spends a lot of money on famous good players. Their average age, calculated by the number of minutes played, is 27.2 - slightly higher than the average of the tournament.
These players are unlikely to become superstars and continuously improve the team's performance. For Villa, the way to find a future superstar is through internal development (which happened to Jack Grealish) or betting on younger, more adventurous players like Brighton or Leicester did.
Villa's team building method is unlikely to create a team with better basic qualifications than Manchester City, Manchester United, Liverpool, Arsenal, Tottenham, Chelsea and Newcastle. Because basically, they are recruiting players that the above teams have eliminated or do not have many opportunities to play.
However, this approach is also likely to create a financially viable operating team. That is what Villa is following. If their real ability is only in the Top 7, then it is understandable that other "big guys" have declined with a little luck, the current position is understandable. And that is exactly what happened this season for Villa.
Villa have been the better team than Tottenham and Man United this season. Suppose there is a 75% chance that the Premier League will win 5 places to the Champions League next season, the opportunity will open up for Unai Emery's army.
The biggest risk they face in the next 25 matches is the lack of squad depth. The 10 players with the most appearances have played at least 85% of the total minutes. While Torres and Martinez each missed one starting match, the other eight (Konsa, Cash, Digne, Luiz, Kamara, McGinn, Diaby and Watkins) started every game.
Instead of trying to build a sustainable long-term success, Villa have lost more money than any Premier League club between 2011 and 2021. That strategy has brought them to their current position and is capable of reaching the Top 4.
