Argentina entered the 2026 World Cup as defending champions after a thrilling victory over France in the 2022 final. If they successfully defend the throne, Lionel Messi and his teammates will become the first team to do this since Brazil in 1962.
Based on the pre-tournament simulation, the Opta supercomputer has outlined the potential journey to bring Argentina to the final and further to the fourth world championship in history.
Group stage: The door to continue is wide open
Argentina is in Group J with Algeria, Austria and Jordan. This is considered one of the easiest groups for the defending champion.
Although history has witnessed many champions being eliminated early such as Italy in 2010, Spain in 2014 or Germany in 2018, the 48-team format of the 2026 World Cup significantly reduces the possibility of surprises.
According to Opta, Argentina has a 96.9% chance of passing the group stage and a 72.6% chance of toping Group J. Only Spain has a higher rate in both of these statistics.
If they finish the group stage in the leading position as predicted, Argentina will face the second-placed team of Group H in the round of 32.
Round of 32: Challenge named Uruguay
The opponent is predicted to be Uruguay, one of the most traditional teams in South America.
This is definitely not an easy challenge, but Argentina has a basis to be confident. In the last 9 encounters, they have only lost to Uruguay once and kept a clean sheet in 7 of the last 8 encounters.
Opta assesses Argentina has a 63.2% chance of passing this round to advance to the round of 16.
Round of 16: Facing Turkey
In the round of 16, Argentina is likely to face Turkey, who is predicted to overcome Egypt in the previous round.
This will be the first time the two teams have met in an official match at the men's national team level. Although Turkey is a difficult opponent with many talented young players, Argentina is still rated slightly higher thanks to experience and squad quality.
According to Opta's simulation, the chance for Albiceleste to reach the quarter-finals is 45.7%.
Messi vs. Ronaldo?
This is a scenario that football fans around the world are waiting for. If everything goes as predicted, Argentina will meet Portugal in the quarter-finals, creating the first confrontation between Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo at a World Cup.
The two world football legends have faced each other many times at the club and national team levels, but have never met in the biggest playground on the planet.
The last time Argentina and Portugal met was in a friendly match in 2014. At that time, both Messi and Ronaldo started but left the field from the first half.
According to assessments, Argentina will have a 30.6% chance of reaching the semi-finals.
Spain vs. Spain
In the semi-finals, Argentina's predicted opponent is Spain, the team that is holding the European championship title. This is considered one of the most attractive matches of the tournament when the two champions of Europe and South America face each other.
According to Opta, Spain is the number one candidate for the 2026 World Cup championship with a crowning probability of up to 16.5%.
However, history is supporting Argentina. In all 5 previous appearances in the World Cup semi-finals, Albiceleste have all won tickets to the final.
France rematch
The scenario that Opta assesses as most likely to happen is the final match between Argentina and France at MetLife Stadium.
This will be a reenactment of the 2022 World Cup final, and also the first time in history that two men's teams have met in two consecutive World Cup finals.
Although France is rated slightly higher by Opta in the championship race with a probability of 12.8%, compared to Argentina's 10.4%, the defending champion still possesses enough bravery to dream of a perfect ending.
If this scenario becomes a reality, Messi will not only break the record for the number of appearances at the World Cup, but also have the opportunity to become the first captain in history to lift the gold cup in two consecutive World Cups.
That will be the perfect final chapter for the career of one of the greatest players in world football history.
