Overview
Benfica surprised everyone when they took the top spot in Group C, above Bayern Munich. However, their opponent in the round of 16 will be Chelsea.
In theory, topping the group will help teams have an easier match in the knockout round. But instead of facing Flamengo in a match where they could be rated higher, Benfica will be the underdog team when facing The Blues at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte.
Of course, Benfica will be delighted with the opportunity to create a surprise, just like they did when they won convincingly 1-0 against Bayern in the group stage.
However, their record against English opponents is very poor. The last time Benfica beat a Premier League side was in March 2014 when they won 3-1 against Tottenham. They have not won in 7 matches against English sides since then (3 draws, 4 losses).
And although Chelsea lost to Flamengo in the group stage, thereby winning second place, the Blues are still in good form overall.
Since winning just three of their 12 games between December 22 and February 22 (3 draws, 6 losses), Chelsea have won 16 of their next 22 games in all competitions (2 draws, 4 losses), scoring 38 goals and keeping a clean sheet in 12 games.
And it is worth mentioning that Chelsea have never lost to Benfica. They beat Benfica at home and away in the 2011-12 UEFA Champions League quarter-finals, before winning 2-1 in the 2013 UEFA Europa League final. However, those matches have been going on for quite a while.
If Benfica want to create a surprise against Chelsea, they will probably need the excellent performance of center back Nicolas Otamendi. The Argentine has been a formidable presence in Benfica's defence in the competition.
His 29 successful one-on-one duels are the most of any other player in Group C. His 80.6% (29/36) success rate in his one-on-one duels is also impressive.
Another Argentine could be the key for Chelsea. Former Benfica player Enzo Fernandez contributed 2 assists in Chelsea's 3-0 victory over Esperance. The midfielder has provided 16 assists under Enzo Maresca, more than any of his teammates.
Predicting the result
Supercomputer Opta believes Chelsea have a better chance of winning this match, with 45.1%.
Benfica have a 29.1% chance of advancing in the 90 minutes of official play, while the 25.8% chance of the two teams entering extra time.
Score prediction: Benfica 2-3 Chelsea
The match between Benfica and Chelsea takes place at 3:00 am on June 29 (Vietnam time).
