Overview
The Premier League title race this season continues to be unpredictable. At one point, it seemed that Arsenal would rush to the finish line, but Manchester City has shown the familiar bravery of a champion.
Arsenal's 2 draws against Brentford and Wolves open up opportunities for Pep Guardiola's team to narrow the gap. However, City must maintain stability if they want to continue to put pressure.
The 2-1 victory over Newcastle United last weekend, with a surprise double by Nico O'Reilly, helped Man City keep pace with the race. The fact that they have won all two recent away games at Leeds United's stadium is also a positive sign, although in history, City has only won 3 consecutive matches at Elland Road (period 1924-1928).
Another advantage for Man City is that they will play before Arsenal faces Chelsea in the London derby. A victory will increase pressure on the "Gunners". Notably, City has only lost one of the last 14 Premier League matches held before the match against Arsenal (10 wins, 3 draws).
Defense achievements against newly promoted teams also favor the away team. From the 2017-2018 season, Man City only conceded two or more goals in 52 matches against newcomers. However, two of them came against Leeds - a 1-2 defeat in April 2021 and a 3-2 victory in November 2025. The remaining match was a 2-3 defeat to Norwich City in 2019, when Norwich was led by the current Leeds coach, Daniel Farke.
Leeds entered this match with relatively positive form. They started February with a 3-1 victory over Nottingham Forest, then secured important draws against Chelsea (2-2) and Aston Villa (1-1).
Since the beginning of December, Leeds have drawn 8 matches - the most in the league. However, 3 out of 4 recent draws have the same scenario - leading 1-0 but not preserving the advantage.
From the beginning of the 2021-2022 season, Leeds has only kept a clean sheet in 7/43 Premier League matches where they scored opening goals. 2 clean sheets this season all came from late goals: 1-0 win against Everton (84th minute) and 1-0 against Fulham (90th minute). Notably, they have conceded in all 21 recent matches when leading 1-0 after the first half, a streak that has lasted since the 3-0 victory over Chelsea in 2022.
If defense is already a concern, then the return of Erling Haaland makes the challenge even more harsh. The Norwegian striker scored a double at Elland Road in December 2022. If he repeats that achievement, he will become the first away team player to score 2 or more goals in 2 consecutive matches in the Premier League at this stadium.
Man City hopes Jeremy Doku will recover from a calf injury in time, while Josko Gvardiol and Mateo Kovacic are still long-term absent.
Leeds almost has full force, except for Noah Okafor - who cannot participate due to a hamstring injury.
In the context of the championship race heating up, each point is decisive. And at Elland Road, both Leeds and Man City understand that even small mistakes can make a big difference.
Head-to-head record
Man City entered this match with a clear historical advantage. Leeds United have lost all five of their last Premier League encounters against Pep Guardiola's team since December 2021.
This series of defeats is completely opposite to the previous period, when Leeds only lost four of their first 16 encounters with Man City (7 wins, 5 draws), showing a significant reversal in head-to-head balance.
Score prediction: Leeds 0-1 Man City
The match between Leeds United and Man City takes place at 0:30 AM on March 1st (Vietnam time).
