Overview
The new format of the UEFA Champions League once faced a wave of fierce criticism right from its launch. Many fans and experts questioned the risk of reduced competitiveness. However, before the final round of the group stage in the 2025-2026 season, the drama was still pushed to a high level when there were still many bottlenecks that could not be removed.
Last season, the defending European champion PSG could not be in the top 8, meaning they had to play play-offs on the journey to conquer the first Champions League title in history. These two arising matches could become a real burden, as Man City once experienced when drawing lots against Real Madrid. Therefore, a ticket straight to the round of 16 is always important.
This season, PSG entered the match against Newcastle with an undecided fate, after a stumble against Sporting CP in the previous match. Luis Enrique's team is currently sixth with 13 points, while Newcastle is seventh and only behind PSG in terms of goals scored.
A victory will put one of the two teams into the round of 16, while a draw may also be enough, depending on the developments in other matches. However, the scenario of both of them in the top 8 is considered very unlikely to happen, and almost certainly one team will have to enter the play-offs next month.
PSG just regained their spirits after the defeat to Sporting with a 1-0 victory at Auxerre in Ligue 1, thanks to a goal from Bradley Barcola. Lens' defeat to Marseille last weekend also helped the reigning champion return to the top.
Meanwhile, Newcastle continues to live in a precarious state. They just beat PSV 3-0 to open up the opportunity to win a direct ticket to the round of 16, and at the same time break through in the top 6 race of the Premier League. But immediately after that, Eddie Howe's team lost 0-2 at home to Aston Villa, closing a 4-match unbeaten streak in the tournament. This is also Aston Villa's first victory at St. James' Park in the Premier League after 21 years.
Notably, Newcastle was goalless despite creating a number of chances equivalent to 2.3 expected goals (xG) - their highest xG in a Premier League match without scoring since the 0-0 draw with Crystal Palace in September 2022 (2.8).
Not only lacking sharpness in attack, Newcastle also faces the risk of losing two key players in midfield. Captain Bruno Guimaraes suffered an ankle injury in the victory over PSV and his chances of playing at Parc des Princes remain uncertain. Joelinton may also be absent after having problems right at the beginning of the second half in the defeat to Aston Villa.
No matter what the situation of this duo is, Newcastle's defense will certainly be under great pressure against one of the strongest attacking teams in Europe.
PSG is one of the teams with the most goals in the Champions League this season (20 goals, equal to Arsenal and Bayern Munich). In the opposite direction, Newcastle has 4 clean sheets, only behind Arsenal and Tottenham. At the same time, only Arsenal and Liverpool have a expected goal difference lower than Newcastle's 6.5.
However, Newcastle cannot just endure the match and look forward to the defense, especially when the opponent is the leading team in the Champions League this season in terms of number of shots (148) and number of shots on target (54). In the attacking front, Yoane Wissa scored against PSV, while Harvey Barnes and Anthony Gordon are also named on the scoreboard.
Although rated higher, PSG is showing signs of stagnation in this very playground. In the first 5 Champions League matches this season, they scored 19 goals from 102 shots (performance 18.6%). But in the last 2 matches, PSG averaged 23 shots per match (higher than the 20 in the early stages) but only scored exactly 1 goal from a total of 46 shots (performance 2.2%).
Head-to-head record
The two teams have only faced each other once before in the Champions League group stage of the 2023-2024 season. In the rematch at Parc des Princes, the two sides drew 1-1, after Eddie Howe's team once won big 4-1 at St. James' Park in the first leg.
This will be Newcastle's 10th away match against a French representative in the European arena. In the previous 9 matches, "The Magpies" only had exactly one victory (3 draws, 5 losses).
Score prediction: PSG 2-2 Newcastle
The match between PSG and Newcastle takes place at 3:00 AM on January 29 (Vietnam time).
