Overview
Arsenal fans may fall into a dilemma this weekend. They are forced to hope their arch-rival Tottenham helps them with a big deal in the Premier League title race, as Manchester City travels to Tottenham Hotspur's stadium.
Pep Guardiola lost to Tottenham in the Premier League more than any other opponent in his coaching career. In Man City alone, he has fallen 8 times against Spurs, including the defeat in the first leg at the Etihad in August.
Man City entered round 24 with excitement. They just beat Wolves 2-0 in the most recent Premier League match, and then Arsenal lost to Manchester United at home, helping the gap between City and the top team to be narrowed to 4 points (before round 24).
However, City's performance against Wolves was not really convincing when the two teams both launched 11 shots. That is the seventh time this season The Citizens have had fewer shots or equal to their opponent in the Premier League. On average this season, City is only 4.7 shots/game more than their opponent, which is also the lowest difference in Guardiola's era.
Ahead of the weekend, Opta supercomputer still assesses Arsenal to have a great advantage with 81.5% chance of winning the championship. Notably, Aston Villa (9.2%) is even predicted to have a better chance of winning the championship than Man City (9.1%).
However, Man City still has reason to be confident, especially when they have just secured a top 8 spot in the Champions League group stage after a 2-0 victory over Galatasaray. Erling Haaland and Rayan Cherki both scored, thereby helping the Norwegian striker end a 9-match winless streak from open situations in all competitions.
Besides, new signings also immediately made their mark. Antoine Semenyo is in impressive scoring form, with 5 goals in his last 8 appearances in the Premier League (including for Bournemouth and Man City).
Notably, one of them was the decisive goal in the 90+5 minute against Tottenham in his last match for Bournemouth. If he continues to score, Semenyo could become the third player to score against Tottenham for two different teams in the same Premier League season, after Eric Cantona (1992-1993) and Benito Carbone (1999-2000).
Omar Marmoush also just scored his first goal in the Premier League this season in the match against Wolves. However, all 8 of his goals in the league came at home.
Notably, away fields are a minus point for Man City recently. Since the beginning of the year, they have dropped points when playing away against Sunderland and Man United. Statistics from the last two seasons show that City is only ranked sixth in away field points in the Premier League (46 points/30 matches - an average of 1.53 points/match). This number decreased sharply compared to the previous two seasons when they were the team with the most away points (81 points/38 matches - an average of 2.13 points/match).
On Tottenham's side, the picture is opposite if considering the domestic arena alone. They also entered the top 8 of the Champions League after defeating Eintracht Frankfurt 2-0 in the middle of the week, but in the Premier League, Thomas Frank's team is still struggling.
Tottenham has only won 4/22 recent home matches in the Premier League. Frank alone averages 0.82 points/home match when leading Spurs. And Tottenham's decline is not limited to the period Frank was in charge. In the last two seasons, only Wolves and West Ham have been the two teams that regularly participate in the Premier League but earn fewer points than Tottenham.
Head-to-head record
Man City has encountered bad luck every time they visit Tottenham Hotspur since the stadium opened in 2019. They lost all three of their first trips here in all competitions including the Champions League and Premier League. After that, City suffered three more defeats, including 2 in the Premier League and one in the League Cup.
However, the balance has recently tilted back towards the away team. Man City won in the last two away games against Tottenham in the Premier League. The last time they won 3 consecutive away games against Spurs in the Premier League was a long time ago, in the period from February 1973 to August 1974.
Score prediction: Tottenham 2-1 Man City
The match between Tottenham and Man City takes place at 11:30 PM on February 1st (Vietnam time).
