The FIFA World Cup 2026, held in the US, Mexico and Canada, will kick off in less than 3 months. However, military tensions in the Middle East, especially after US President Donald Trump's announcement of conducting large-scale military operations against Iran, are raising many concerns about the participation of teams in the region.
Iran won a ticket to the World Cup very early and was placed in Group G with opponents Belgium, Egypt and New Zealand. However, instability in the region not only affects Iran but also raises questions for the Iraqi national team, which is preparing to participate in the intercontinental play-offs taking place in Mexico this month.
What is the current situation in Iran?
Immediately after the first attacks, a senior official of the Iranian Football Federation (FFIRI) said that the prospects for the national team to participate in the World Cup are becoming bleak.
After what happened, it is very difficult to say that we can participate in the World Cup with the same hope as before" - Mr. Mehdi Taj - Vice President of the Asian Football Federation and FFIRI official said.
Initially, FIFA said they are closely monitoring the situation. Sources said that the world football governing body still hopes that tensions will be resolved before the tournament kicks off on June 11 with the opening match between Mexico and South Africa in Mexico City.
FIFA President Gianni Infantino also gave a positive signal after meeting with President Donald Trump, affirming that Iran is still welcome at the tournament, where they are expected to play two matches in Los Angeles and one match in Seattle.
President Trump emphasized that the Iranian team is of course still welcome to participate in the World Cup in the US" - Infantino said.
However, immediately after that, Iranian Sports Minister Ahmad Donyamali announced that the national team would not participate in the World Cup: "After our leader was assassinated, we cannot participate in the World Cup under any circumstances.
Is Iran sure to withdraw?
Currently, the answer is still no. FFIRI is directly managed by the Iranian government, so the final decision on whether the national team will participate in the World Cup or not will depend on the domestic political situation.
President Trump predicts the conflict could last from 4 to 6 weeks. If the situation leads to a change of government in Iran, this could affect the final decision of the country's football federation.
During that time, FIFA may postpone the decision until the FIFA congress in Vancouver on April 30.
Sources say FIFA is still monitoring the situation and does not need to make a decision immediately. However, if the conflict continues at the time of the congress, the agency will have to prepare alternative options in case Iran withdraws from the tournament.
Alternative
If Iran withdraws, the replacement team is likely to come from the Asian Football Confederation (AFC), specifically the team with the highest ranking in the qualifiers.
Currently, the top candidate is Iraq. This team will participate in the intercontinental play-off match against Bolivia or Suriname in Monterrey (Mexico) on March 31.
If Iraq loses the play-off match but Iran withdraws from the World Cup, they can still be chosen as a replacement. In case Iraq wins the match and wins a direct ticket to the World Cup for the first time since 1986, the replacement position is likely to belong to (UAE), the team that lost to Iraq in the AFC play-off before that.
How long can FIFA wait?
In World Cup history, there has never been a precedent of a team withdrawing or being eliminated from the tournament right before the opening ceremony.
However, European football has witnessed a similar case when Yugoslavia was eliminated from EURO 1992 due to UN sanctions. Denmark was invited to replace him just 10 days before the tournament started and then unexpectedly won the championship.
Sources said FIFA is ready to wait further to assess the situation in Iran before making a final decision.
The results of the intercontinental play-off round on March 31 will be an important milestone. However, the official decision will likely only be made after the FIFA congress on April 30.
