Chelsea and Tottenham both have reason to be optimistic before the new season when they do not have to play in European cups. Lighter schedules help the two teams have more time to rest, practice and focus on the Premier League.
With The Blues, the summer of 2026 brings many changes. Xabi Alonso takes over the hot seat, while the club breaks the transfer record in England and adds experienced players to the squad that was the youngest in the Premier League last season.
Spurs also have a new look under coach Roberto De Zerbi. They no longer have to worry about relegation battles like last season, and the Italian strategist is facilitated to strengthen his forces thanks to the expanded transfer budget.
Both Chelsea and Tottenham have not won a European cup spot after poor performances in the domestic league last season. However, history shows that not having to play in Europe can bring a significant advantage.
Since the 2008-2009 season, there have been 11 cases of a team in the "Big Six" group moving from a season with European football to a season without participating in UEFA competitions. In 10 cases, that team improved both points and positions in the rankings, reaching a rate of 91%.
The average improvement is 16 points, while teams have risen nearly 5 places in the rankings. Notably, 7 out of 11 cases ended the next season in the top 4 leading teams.
The Blues once benefited from similar circumstances. In the 2015-2016 season, they experienced many upheavals when Jose Mourinho left and Guus Hiddink temporarily took office. Chelsea only ranked 10th and did not win a ticket to European cups.
A year later, Antonio Conte helped Chelsea increase 43 points, finishing with 93 points and winning the Premier League title.
Recent history also provides a basis for Chelsea and Tottenham to be optimistic. Mauricio Pochettino's Chelsea increased by 19 points and finished the 2023-2024 season in 6th place after a season without European football. Tottenham also improved from 8th place with 60 points in the 2022-2023 season to 5th place with 66 points in the following season.
However, not having to play in Europe is not the only factor creating progress. Changes on the coaching bench, squad quality and transfer activities also play an important role.
Chelsea and Tottenham this season have an additional advantage when they do not have to rotate forces for midweek matches. Alonso and De Zerbi have more time to train, build tactical systems and prepare for each Premier League round.
With The Blues, the immediate goal may be to improve their performance compared to last season. They once won 30 points after 19 matches under Maresca before their form declined in the final stage. If they maintain similar performance throughout the season, Chelsea can aim for the milestone of 60 points, enough to compete for a Champions League spot.
As for Tottenham, De Zerbi's tactical system, the return of James Maddison and new players in the defense and midfield can make a difference.
Therefore, the absence of European football is not necessarily a step back. For Chelsea and Tottenham, this may be an opportunity for the two teams to devote all their focus to the Premier League, thereby improving their position and performance after a disappointing season.
