Overview
The gap in quality and squad depth was revealed when Arsenal defeated Inter 3-1 in the penultimate round of the Champions League group stage. This defeat pushed Nerazzurri out of the top 8 in the context that there was only one more match left to close the group stage.
That means Inter almost has no right to make mistakes anymore. They need to defeat Borussia Dortmund in the final round (taking place in the middle of next week) to nurture hopes of winning a direct ticket, instead of having to enter a risky play-off round.
Returning to Serie A, Inter - the leading team - must immediately put aside their disappointment to face a tight schedule. Their strength is being able to play early in round 22. If they take advantage of it, Inter can temporarily create a safer gap, while direct competitors face difficult doors.
AC Milan (the chasing team behind) had to play away at Olimpico against Roma - a team that is in very formidable home form - while Napoli traveled to Turin to meet Juventus. A self-harming round of the chasing group will be a golden opportunity for Inter to break through, as long as they do not drop points themselves.
Head-to-head history also supports the San Siro home team. Inter has won 6 consecutive matches against Pisa, including a 2-0 victory in the first leg this season. However, that is not a reason for Chivu to be allowed to be subjective, especially when psychological factors after the Arsenal defeat and the obsession with Dortmund ahead can completely distract Inter.
On the other side, Pisa, despite being near the bottom, still shows steadfastness away from home. They have not had any victories when leaving Arena Garibaldi this season, but have only lost 3/10 away matches. This is a ratio that shows that Pisa is very good at pulling opponents into deadlock situations.
Notably, Pisa even plays more distinctly when away from home. 6/7 of their most recent away games ended in a draw. The newly promoted team also has a better away scoring ability than home. They have scored 2 goals in 6 different away games, reaching a total of 14 goals away, while the total number of goals scored at Arena Garibaldi is extremely modest.
However, Pisa is still in an alarming situation. They may fall to the bottom of the table after this round, but the distance to the safe group is only 3 points. With the motivation to stay in the league, plus the easy-to-play bottom-ranking mentality, Pisa can completely cause difficulties if Inter does not focus enough in the match.
Personnel situation
Although Inter did not have any more injuries after the defeat to Arsenal in the Champions League, coach Cristian Chivu is still facing many personnel problems.
Denzel Dumfries continues to be absent after an ankle surgery, while Tomas Palacios (ankle injury), goalkeeper Raffaele Di Gennaro (hand) and key midfielder Hakan Calhanoglu (muscle) have not yet been able to return to play.
Meanwhile, Pisa entered this away match with a seriously damaged squad. Juan Cuadrado (muscle), Raul Albiol, Calvin Stengs (muscle), Mateus Lusuardi, Daniel Denoon (ankle) and Isak Vural (knee) were all confirmed unable to participate.
In addition, Ebenezer Akinsanmiro is likely to return to the squad after completing his duty with the Nigerian national team at the African Cup.
Expected lineup:
Inter Milan: Sommer, Bisseck, Acerbi, Bastoni, Henrique, Barella, Zielinski, Sucic, Dimarco, Esposito, Martinez.
Scuffet, Calabrese, Canestrelli, Coppola, Toure, Marin, Aebischer, Angora, Moreo, Tramoni, Durosinmi.
The match between Inter and Pisa takes place at 2:45 AM on January 24 (Vietnam time).
