Prediction of the Serie A championship race for the 2025-2026 season

Overview of Serie A before the new season

Serie A 2025-2026 will kick off this weekend with the opening series. Genoa faced Lecce and defending champions Napoli as guests at Sassuolo.

Last season, coach Antonio Conte's team created a spectacular comeback, overcoming Inter Milan in the final round to win the championship. MVP Scott McTominay and Romelu Lukaku shined, helping Napoli beat Cagliari 2-0 at Diego Armando Maradona, ending a historic campaign.

Meanwhile, Simone Inzaghi's Inter experienced double disappointment. They dropped Scudetto and suffered a 0-5 defeat to Paris St-Germain in the Champions League final. In addition, Inter also stopped in the Coppa Italia semi-finals when they lost to arch-rival AC Milan.

Now, Cristian Chi Vu - a former Nerazzurri center back - is expected to bring a new vitality after his promising performance at the FIFA Club World Cup last summer.

AS Roma, who are just one point behind in the Champions League, have entered the new season under Gian Piero Gasperini on the coaching bench.

Lazio and Milan also welcomed familiar faces. Maurizio Sarri returns to the capital, while Massimiliano Allegri returns to San Siro. Both have won Serie A with Juventus, while Allegri brought the Scudetto to Rossoneri in 2011.

The three new players this season are Sassuolo and Pisa - promoted directly - alongside Cremonese, who won the play-off against Spezia.

Unpredictable championship race

Despite only finishing as runners-up last season, Inter are still considered the number one candidate for the 2025-2026 Serie A championship.

Last season, the Nerazzurri were just 1 point behind Napoli, despite having the strongest attack (79 goals) and a second solid defense (35 goals conceded, only 27 more than Napoli).

Up front, Lautaro Martinez and Marcus Thuram continue to be the leaders. Thuram scored 14 goals and had 4 assists, while captain Lautaro contributed 12 goals and 3 assists.

According to Opta, Inter have a 35.9% chance of winning the Scudetto. However, Cristian Chi Vu will have to overcome the huge shadow of Simone Inzaghi - who holds the highest winning percentage in Inter's history among coaches with at least 40 matches (65%).

On the other hand, Napoli are only rated as having a 13.7% chance of defending the title, despite Antonio Conte adding a strong force. The defending champions brought in Noa Lang, Lorenzo Lucca and especially Kevin De Bruyne to improve their attack.

During his time at Manchester City, De Bruyne was the best setter in Europe with 170 assists, much better than Lionel Messi (147). Meanwhile, Lucca has scored 20 goals in Serie A since joining Udinese, becoming the youngest player to reach this milestone in the last 2 seasons.

The challenge for Napoli is to separate their efforts in the Champions League. However, Conte - the coach with the highest average score in Serie A history (2.24/match, calculated according to the 3-point standard from the 1929-1930 season - is expected to help this team maintain stability.

Atalanta, despite having just parted ways with Gian Piero Gasperini after 9 years of association, is still rated by supercomputers with a 12.8% chance of winning the championship. Gasperini is a symbol at Bergamo with 342 leading matches in Serie A, only behind Giovanni Trapattoni (402 matches against Juventus).

However, the departure of key striker Mateo Retegui - the top scorer last season with 25 goals and 8 assists - is a big loss. In addition, Ademola Lookman's future is still uncertain.

In the last 2 seasons, only Lautaro Martinez (69) has scored more goals than Lookman (57) in Serie A. The stay or departure of the Nigerlian star will determine Atalanta's ambitions.

Behind the top candidates, Roma (9.9%) and Juventus (8.2%) are also expected to compete for a place in the Champions League, instead of actually competing for Scudetto.