Overview
Last month's consecutive victories have ensured that Italy will at least finish the qualifying round in second place, as the campaign closes with the final match at San Siro this weekend. However, the top spot is almost out of reach for them.
If the Azzurri cannot repeat Norway's result at home against Estonia, they will definitely have to participate in the play-off round. In any case, only when Erling Haaland and his teammates completely collapse can the direct door to the 2026 World Cup open for Italy.
The two teams will reunite in Milan this weekend, but Norway is holding a big advantage when it won 3-0 in the first leg, 3 points more and has an outstanding goal difference (+16). Therefore, Italy has almost accepted the fact that the direct ticket is no longer in their hands.
After two painful eliminations in the play-off round, causing La Nazionale to miss both of their most recent World Cups (Russia 2018 and Qatar 2022), the 2006 world champion is expected to escape that defeat cycle under Gennaro Gattuso.
Since replacing Luciano Spalletti in the summer, Gattuso has helped the team win 4 consecutive matches, scoring 16 goals. Including a 3-0 win over Israel last month - a match in which Mateo Retegui scored a double to strengthen his position as the team's number one striker.
That success helped Italy firmly hold on to second place. However, to dethrone the top spot, they not only need to win at Chisinau, but also have to wait for the miracle to happen in Oslo.
Moldova is completely inferior to Italy, having lost all six previous encounters, scoring only 3 goals but conceding 17. Including a 2-0 defeat in June.
In that match, Azzurri only took more than 10 minutes before and after the break to score 2 goals, forcing Tricolorii to continue waiting for the first victory in Group I.
Moldova has not had a single win yet and is at the bottom of the table. However, the 1-1 draw with Estonia last month at least helped them end a streak of 7 consecutive losses.
In that dark period, the 1-11 defeat to Norway - the heaviest defeat in Moldova's football history - forced coach Serghei Clescenco to resign after 4 years leading the team.
Immediately after that, Lilian Popescu, the former coach of the U19 team, was appointed as a replacement. His debut has brought Moldova their first point in this qualifying round.
Ranked 156th in the world by FIFA, Moldova only has two weak opportunities to seek the first victory. It was a tough match against Italy and a clash with Israel.
Personnel situation
Having shifted his focus to the play-off semi-final that could take place next year, Gennaro Gattuso said he would most likely rotate the squad. Gattuso will give opportunities to the faces that have not played much in the confrontation with Moldova.
Key midfielder Nicolo Barella is absent due to suspension, and Bryan Cristante is expected to replace him.
Up front, Moise Kean (Fiorentina) has been forced to withdraw due to injury, while Nicolo Cambiaghi (Bologna) has been called up as an additional player. Giacome Raspadori also had physical problems in the first training session of the Azzurri, while Federico Chiesa (Liverpool) continued to be given a break to ensure a full recovery.
However, Gianluca Scamacca has returned to the squad, while Mateo Retegui is still the biggest hope in attack.
In defense, Alessandro Buongiorno and Samuele Ricci both returned, while goalkeeper Elia Caprile (Cagliari) was called up to the national team for the first time by Gattuso.
On the other side, Moldova will be without Nichita Motpan - a versatile midfielder who is injured. However, the visitors still received good news when Artur Ionita returned after a period of absence, and Ion Nicolaescu has also recovered to be ready to play.
Expected lineup:
Moldova: Avram, Forov, Craciun, Baboglo, Platica, Reabciuk, Caimacov, Rata, Bogaciuc, Postolachi, Nicolaescu.
Italy: Donnarumma, Di Lorenzo, Mancini, Bastoni, Dimarco, Cristante, Locatelli, Tonali, Orsolini, Retegui, Zaccagni.
The match between Moldova and Italy takes place at 2:45 am on November 14 (Vietnam time).
