In the middle of last week, coach Pep Guardiola again faced a familiar cycle. And it seems he is trapped in that vicious circle.
Real Madrid, the team that eliminated his Bayern from the Champions League in 2014 and Man City in 2022, 2024, 2025, is facing the opportunity to do the same in 2026. In fact, since Chelsea defeated Man City in the final in 2021, no other team has eliminated them from the European arena. And perhaps, if that continues to happen, no other team besides Real Madrid needs to do that.
Guardiola called this his "birthday": the 50th match he has against Real Madrid as a player or coach. But it was a sad birthday. The 0-3 defeat was his heaviest defeat with Man City. It was like a repeated day, even worse.
Previously, Real Madrid often needed a penalty shootout or goals in injury time to defeat Man City. This time, everything was almost decided right from the first half of the first leg. Federico Valverde's hat-trick in 23 minutes almost shattered Man City's dream of winning a treble this season, leaving only a faint hope for a treble.
This is a type of failure that could bring Guardiola closer to the end of his coaching career. He has won the Champions League three times, but Real Madrid - more than any opponent - always stands guard against the opportunity to win the fourth title, and will probably continue to do so. Carlo Ancelotti is still an unparalleled figure in this arena. Guardiola, who sometimes feels like an outsider, probably understands that before Real Madrid's traditional strength.
During the time The Citizens waited for the Champions League title, Guardiola often showed insecurity in big matches. However, it can also be questioned whether excessive confidence is part of the reason for this defeat. Real Madrid entered the match with many injuries and was led by a relatively new coach. Man City also won right in the Spanish capital this season. Therefore, perhaps Guardiola believes that the opponent will be easily defeated.
Guardiola's squad choice was surprising because it was too bold and it quickly proved to be wrong. He arranged 3 wingers while the team really needed another central midfielder, using a more reasonable 4-2-3-1 formation instead of 4-3-3. Man City lacked balance and certainty when a famous midfielder-loving coach arranged too few players in midfield.
Guardiola is increasingly focusing on state transitions, signing contracts with players with good physical foundations. But perhaps he needs a midfielder with better technique and tactical thinking in midfield. When Savinho left the field in the second half for Tijjani Reijnders to enter, it was almost an admission that the starting lineup was wrong. Reijnders, Rayan Cherki, Nico Gonzalez or Nico O'Reilly should have been the third piece in midfield.
Instead, young player O'Reilly was pulled down to play left-back and was immediately exploited, leading to Valverde's opening goal. "We focused on practicing long passes from attacks. Man City likes high pressing and playing one-on-one. That means behind their defense there will be space" - the Uruguayan midfielder said.
Real Madrid has thoroughly exploited the space behind the two full-backs of Man City. Thibaut Courtois even became the one who assisted the opening goal.
Man City fell right into Real Madrid's counter-attacking trap. Meanwhile, despite having 3 wingers supporting behind him, Erling Haaland only touched the ball 10 times in the whole match. In a match where Kylian Mbappe was absent, the Norwegian striker still almost left no mark. His recent achievements are also not very impressive: only 4 goals in 18 matches.
The squad structure of the two teams shows the difference. Man City has better squad depth, but Real Madrid - according to the philosophy of quality over quantity - owns more world-class stars. Valverde is the clearest proof of that.
In the opposite direction, the young generation of Man City players is difficult to compare with the previous seniors such as Kevin De Bruyne, Ilkay Gundogan or Kyle Walker - people who once reached world-class level in their prime.
And the question is whether Man City is still really in the group of the strongest teams in Europe? Since the treble in 2023, they have only won one Champions League knockout match - against Copenhagen. Although this statistic is somewhat affected by the difficult season before that, Man City has currently lost 8 of their last 16 matches in the European arena.
Guardiola has long been famous for thinking too much in major Champions League matches. In the match against Real Madrid - as well as the previous defeat to Bayer Leverkusen - the problem may simply be the wrong squad choice. It seems that he assesses his team as stronger than reality.
Man City currently lacks stability compared to previous generations and is also less likely to overwhelm the opponent. This season, Man City has only won 3 teams with a difference of at least 4 goals.
Now, they need a spectacular comeback like Liverpool did against Barcelona in 2019. But that is a rare story in Champions League history.
