The Premier League is still holding a favorable position to win the fifth spot to participate in the 2026-2027 Champions League season, despite a series of disappointing results in the round of 16.
4 out of 6 Premier League representatives - Chelsea, Manchester City, Newcastle and Tottenham - have been eliminated, leaving only Arsenal and Liverpool to continue their journey in Europe's most prestigious arena.
However, England is still firmly at the top of the UEFA coefficient rankings - a measure of the performance of clubs in the Champions League, Europa League and Europa Conference League.
The two countries at the top of the end-of-season rankings will be awarded an additional Champions League spot, also known as achievement spot. Last season, England and Spain were the two beneficiaries, and this scenario could completely be repeated.
The coefficient is calculated based on the results of the clubs: win 2 points, draw 1 point, lose 0 points. There are also bonus points based on achievements in the group stage and knockout rounds, in which the Champions League has the highest bonus coefficient.
Although 4 representatives stopped in the Champions League round of 16, England still creates a significant gap compared to their opponents. They are about 5 points ahead of Germany in terms of score, and also lead Spain by about 4 points. Italy also has no chance of overtaking when Serie A representatives have been completely eliminated in the Champions League.
Part of the advantage of English football comes from the bracket. In the Champions League, Barcelona and Atletico Madrid have to eliminate each other, while Real Madrid faces Bayern Munich - this makes England's direct competitors eliminate points themselves.
In the Europa League, the possibility of Spanish teams such as Real Betis and Celta Vigo meeting each other also helps England maintain the advantage. In addition, if Arsenal overcomes Sporting, or Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest go deep, England's goal difference will continue to be strengthened.
However, everything is not entirely certain. The 2023-2024 season is a typical example when England was in a similar position but then the representatives were eliminated early, causing them to lose an additional spot.
Therefore, Arsenal, Liverpool and the remaining teams in the Europa League and Conference League still need to maintain their form to preserve their advantage.
In the top 5 Premier League race, Liverpool is currently ranked fifth with 49 points, one point more than Chelsea and 4 points more than Brentford. According to Opta, Liverpool has a 62.4% chance of finishing in the top 5, while Chelsea is only 46.7%.
Notably, a special scenario that may occur is that 7 English teams participate in the Champions League together. If Liverpool wins the Champions League and Aston Villa wins the Europa League, and the two teams are outside the top 5 domestic leagues, then the seventh position in the Premier League may also win tickets to the Champions League.
This shows that, despite facing many difficulties, English football is still holding a great advantage in the race to win more slots to participate in the most prestigious playground in Europe.
