After their most recent 5-0 win over Sparta in the UEFA Champions League, Man City have now gone 26 games unbeaten in Europe's most prestigious competition. When this number was announced, there was a lot of controversy because last season, Pep Guardiola's team was stopped by Real Madrid in the quarter-finals on penalties, after a 4-4 draw.
So should losing on penalties be considered a defeat? Or is the penalty shootout just to determine who advances, not to decide who wins?
According to the International Football Association Board (IAFB), the governing body of football, losing on penalties does not count as a loss in the record. According to Article 10.2, penalty shootouts are one of three procedures to determine which team advances, along with away goals or goals scored in extra time. This means that if a team is defeated on penalties, they can still claim victory.
This was controversial, similar to the inadequacy of the away goals rule (now abolished by UEFA). Strangely, when UEFA changed their thinking about away goals, they ignored the issue related to penalty shootouts to calculate achievements.
One of the commonly agreed views to explain this is luck in each "shootout". However, from the perspective of professional football players, luck certainly exists but it only accounts for a very small proportion of success or failure in a penalty shootout.
"There's more to that than luck. You have to go through a mental battle, you have to study who's taking the shot, what their shooting habits are, how they take the run-up,...
People still think that penalty shootouts are luck, but I think only amateurs say that. I think at the highest level, a good goalkeeper can definitely overcome luck on penalties. They know what to do to win" - Croatia goalkeeper Joey Didulia shared.
In 2022, the Barca Innovation Hub compiled data on how to increase the chances of success for penalty kicks. It found that when taking the first penalty, how you celebrate will create a good psychological momentum for your teammates to take the remaining shots. It even showed how the first penalty will influence the last one to increase the chance of winning.
That said, it is not just a matter of luck in the penalty shootout. On the contrary, it requires a very careful study with reason and numbers, it is no longer simply a free kick series, not based on any tactics. Each participant must also overcome a psychological torture and cannot just shoot to finish, so the failure rate is almost certain.
It cannot be said that Real Madrid were better than Man City in the quarter-finals last season, but they were the team that went on to win the championship while their opponents were defeated at home. This does not prove that Pep Guardiola's team is inferior to Carlo Ancelotti's. However, Man City lost in a game that involved luck but also tactics, calculations and psychological battles.
Perhaps, it is time to consider penalty shootouts as a form of statistical determination because it is not "wild" or born only to determine which team advances when there is a draw after 120 minutes?
