Patrick Kluivert's Indonesian team did not create a surprise against the Saudi Arabia team when they lost 2-3 to their opponent, in the first match of the 4th qualifying round of the 2026 World Cup in Asia.
This defeat caused Indonesia to temporarily fall to the bottom of Group B. They will meet Iraq on October 12 to keep hope. However, even if they win, the right to decide to continue is not in their hands.
According to the regulations, the leading team in Group B of the 4th qualifying round will qualify for the 2026 World Cup. The second-placed team will meet the same-level team in Group A, competing in the 5th qualifying round. The winning team will qualify for the Intercontinental Play-off, competing for the final spots at the 2026 World Cup with teams from other continents.
According to analysis from the statistics website Footy Rankings, after the defeat to the Saudi Arabia team, the Indonesian team only has a 1% chance of winning a ticket to the 2026 World Cup. This rate had dropped rapidly compared to 5% before the match started. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has a 70% chance of qualifying for the World Cup, while Iraq has a 29%.
Regarding the chance to participate in the 5th qualifying round, Indonesia only has 24%, behind Saudi Arabia (29%) and Iraq (47%).
In the next match in Group B, Iraq will meet Indonesia. According to Footy Rankings, if Iraq wins or draws with Indonesia, the chance of participating in the World Cup will be 21%, while Saudi Arabia is 79%, Indonesia will be eliminated.
In case Iraq loses to Indonesia, Iraq only has a 7% chance of participating in the World Cup, while the Saudi Arabia side has a rate of up to 93%.
Historically, the Indonesian team has a very poor head-to-head record against the Iraq team. They have lost to the West Asian team in their last 8 meetings. In the second qualifying round of the 2026 World Cup, Iraq beat Indonesia with scores of 5-1 and 2-0 respectively.
The Iraq vs Indonesia match will take place at 2:30 a.m. on October 12. After this match, Iraq will have a match with Saudi Arabia.
