This forecast by market research company Omdia is based on the sharp increase in memory and storage prices, especially the expected minimum increase of 60% in Q1 2026. Price pressure continues to be predicted in the remaining quarters of the year, although subsequent price increases are expected to be more moderate.
According to statistics since the first quarter of 2025, the cost of conventional memory and storage configurations has increased from 90 to 165 USD, putting significant financial pressure on PC (personal computer) providers and forcing them to reduce promotions, increase product prices and adjust configurations. The impact on PC product types is expected to be relatively consistent.
Compared to 2025, the estimated number of desktop computers will decrease by 10% to 53.2 million units in 2026, while laptops will decrease by 12% to 192.2 million units.
In 2026, personal computers priced below 500 USD are expected to be the most severely affected, falling by 28% to about 62.1 million units shipped. Conversely, the output of high-end personal computers priced from 900 USD or more is better supported and may even maintain a modest growth rate.
In addition, "the decline in shipments due to weak supply in 2026 will not affect all PC platforms uniformly," said Kieren Jessop, Research Director at Omdia.
Accordingly, PCs running Windows, accounting for 83% of shipments, are forecast to decrease by 12% by 2026 because this platform is heavily affected by memory and storage limitations.
Chrome devices faced the strongest drop at 28%, as this education-focused platform is particularly vulnerable to tighter component distribution, lower profits and the discontinuation of some memory and storage products.
Mac personal computers are forecast to decrease relatively modestly by 5%, supported by Apple's vertical integrated supply chain and premium product positioning.
Meanwhile, PCs based on the HarmonyOS operating system are emerging as a noteworthy growing segment, predicted to expand tenfold each year from a small platform as Huawei promotes its PC ecosystem in China.
