This is the latest forecast released by market research company Omdia. Accordingly, D2D services for smartphones will have annual user growth rates of 80.1% and 49.4% for revenue by 2030.
Omdia estimates that mobile standard devices, i.e. smartphones using 4G or 5G technology to connect directly to satellites, will become the dominant model in the direct satellite connection (D2D) smartphone market, accounting for more than 95% of the total monthly active users (MAU) globally by 2030.
“In contrast to dual-mode phone solutions, which require an exclusive satellite communication link in smartphones, mobile-based solutions, such as Starlink D2C and AST SpaceMobile, can connect directly to devices that meet 4G or 5G standards, especially existing smartphones,” Guang Yang, senior analyst at Mobile Service Provider Strategy and Infrastructure at Omdia, said.
Direct-to-Device (D2D) satellite service is an advanced technology that allows ordinary, unmodified mobile phones to connect directly to low-orbit satellites (LEO) for texting, calling and basic data in areas without mobile signal. This technology allows satellite-based emergency communication for users in case of disaster.
D2D services are expected to become an important add-on feature to mobile service packages, providing customers with an insurance-like option to maintain connectivity outside the terrestrial network coverage area," said Dario Talmesio, Director of Strategy Research & Service Provider Regulations at Omdia.
In the future, the 6G network is expected to become the first mobile communication system to integrate off-ground network (NTN) technology naturally, with the first 6G standards expected to be released in 2029.
Therefore, D2D satellite services are expected to be further promoted in the 2030s as the integration between land-based and landless networks becomes increasingly deeper.
