According to the new storm forecast from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) released on November 21, a low pressure will form and strengthen as soon as it enters the northeastern boundary of the country's monitoring area.
The low pressure is forecast to sweep across Northern Mindanao, Visayas and Southern Luzon before entering the East Sea.
Compared to the forecast on November 19, PAGASA has raised the likelihood of the low pressure area strengthening into a storm from low to high levels, showing a great risk of new storm formation.
The next storm name on the list of the Philippines is Veberna, while in Vietnam, if the storm enters the East Sea, this system will be called storm No. 15. The last storm to move into the area was previously Typhoon No. 14 Fung-wong.
The forecast says that when entering the East Sea during the week from November 28 to December 4, the system is likely to maintain the intensity of the storm and continue moving westward, towards Vietnam. This is a scenario that is assessed by Philippine experts as highly probable.
In addition to the potential tropical depression to become storm No. 15, another depression may also form near the East Sea during the same period, but the possibility of strengthening into a storm is lower.
In the context of two consecutive systems developing, weather forecasts in the Philippines show that rainfall nationwide will be much higher than the average from November 21 to December 24.
The US typhoon forecast model predicts that around November 26-27, there will be storms passing the Philippines and entering the East Sea, possibly affecting the South Central region in late November or early December, and causing a significant amount of rain.
So far, the East Sea has recorded 14 storms, and the emergence of a new system could increase the total to storm No. 15.
The Southern Hydrometeorological Station also agreed that around November 26-27, there is a possibility of a tropical cyclone forming in the East Sea.
According to statistics from October 21 to November 20, this area has seen 3 storms and 1 tropical depression. Of which, Typhoon No. 12 Fengshen and Typhoon No. 13 Kalmaegi directly affected the mainland of Vietnam.
On November 6, storm No. 13 with strength of level 12 and gusts of level 14 entered the Quang Ngai - Gia Lai area, causing heavy rain in the Central region and the Central Highlands.
The recent historic flood caused severe impacts in the entire Central region. Water levels on many rivers from Quang Tri to Khanh Hoa exceeded alert level 2-3, some places crossed historical flood peaks, especially in Ba River (old Dak Lak - Phu Yen) exceeding the 1993 mark by 1.09 m. A quick report at 6:30 a.m. on November 21 said that floods and landslides in the Central region have killed 41 people and left 9 people missing. Nearly 68,000 houses in Gia Lai, Dak Lak and Khanh Hoa were flooded; many communes and wards in these three provinces were in a state of widespread flooding.
The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting recommends that localities continue to closely monitor storm forecasts and short-term weather forecasts for 1-3 days to proactively respond.
In the context of climate change, extreme weather such as local heavy rain, flash floods or landslides are happening more and more frequently, people and tourists need to update weather forecast information, comply with recommendations of local authorities and authorities to ensure safety.
