FTSE Russell has announced the expected list of 27 Vietnamese stocks to be included in the FTSE Global Equity Index Series (FTSE GEIS) in the September 2026 semi-annual review. From this portfolio, analysts have estimated the scale of passive capital flows that may flow into the Vietnamese stock market during the upgrade process.
According to Mr. Nguyen Viet Sang - Mirae Asset Vietnam Securities Analyst, the portfolio includes 3 large-cap stocks VCB, VIC and VHM; 3 medium-cap stocks including BID, HPG and VPB; and 21 small-cap stocks.
Compared to the preliminary list FTSE announced in April 2026, the official portfolio adds VPB, HDB, HCM, MCH, SSB, TCX, MSB, VPL and VCK; while BSR, DGC, GEE, KDH and KBC do not appear. The banking and securities companies group accounts for 15 out of a total of 27 stocks.
The final index review results, including adjustments if any, are expected to be announced on September 4, 2026.
According to Mr. Sang, Vietnam's official weight after the review has not been widely announced. However, inspection results from sources in the industry show that the expected weight is in the range of 0.49-0.50%.
From this ratio, Mirae Asset Vietnam offers two scenarios for passive capital flows. If applying a ratio of 0.50% to all four corresponding indicators, passive capital flows are estimated at about 3.352 billion USD.
In the second scenario, the proportion of Vietnam is determined by taking the potential capitalization of announced Vietnamese stocks divided by the latest market capitalization of each index. According to this assumption, passive capital flow is estimated at about 1.63 billion USD, close to Mirae Asset Vietnam's previous forecast of 1.53 billion USD.
However, Mr. Sang noted that the denominator in this calculation method still reflects the index structure before the review period, so it is difficult to avoid differences compared to the final proportion.
Capital flows will also not be fully allocated immediately in September 2026. Vietnam is included in the index in 4 phases, with rates of 10% in September 2026, 20% in March 2027 and 35% in each phase in June 2027 and September 2027 respectively. Accumulation coefficients accordingly reach 10%, 30%, 65% and 100%.
In the first phase, Mirae Asset Vietnam expects VIC to attract the largest passive capital flow, followed by VHM, HPG, VPB and STB. Considering the impact on liquidity, SSB is forecast to be the most affected, equivalent to about 2.1 days of average trading value of 20 sessions; followed by VIC with 1.4 days, MCH and VPL with about 1.3 days.
SSI Research also built capital flow scenarios based on Vietnam's weight in the FTSE Emerging All Cap Index. According to this unit, after the review in March 2026, Vietnam's weight was at about 0.34-0.35%, before increasing to about 0.49-0.50% in the review in August 2026.
In the basic scenario, SSI Research assumes that Vietnam's proportion will remain around 0.49%, equivalent to about 2.21 billion USD of passive capital accumulated in 4 phases.
In a positive scenario, the proportion of Vietnam is assumed to continue to increase, from about 0.50% in September 2026 to 0.65% in March 2027, 0.80% in June 2027 and 0.95% in September 2027. At that time, the accumulated passive capital flow may reach about 4.284 billion USD.
SSI Research emphasizes that the USD 4.28 billion level is not a forecast, but an illustrative scenario if the increased proportion observed between the March and August review periods of 2026 continues to be maintained.
According to SSI Research, a noteworthy long-term factor is not only the market size but also the investment capacity of the Vietnamese market for international investors. Increasing free-float, having more large-cap enterprises that meet the index conditions, improving accessibility and expanding foreign ownership space can create conditions for Vietnam's proportion in global index sets to continue to increase.
