The Vietnamese stock market closed the trading week on August 17-21 with a breakthrough session, bringing the VN-Index up 33.8 points (1.95%), to 1,768.12 points. This is the strongest increase session of the index since the beginning of August.
Overall for the week, VN-Index increased by about 39 points, equivalent to more than 2.2%, regaining most of the points lost in the previous week. The trading session on August 21st is of special significance as the story of market upgrades, which has only stopped at expectations for many months, has now begun to have a basis to transform into real capital flows.
Over the past time, prolonged liquidity decline has become one of the major obstacles for VN-Index. Market-wide liquidity last week averaged only about 15,000 billion VND. Average liquidity is still at the lowest level since the beginning of the year.
This is being concerned by investors as credit for securities in recent years has become an important part of securities companies' operations. When market liquidity increases, margin debt increases, capital turnover is improved and stock prices go up, leverage can create a positive effect. But on the contrary, when liquidity decreases, leverage becomes a factor that amplifies fluctuations. Investors can proactively sell stocks to recover money, repay debts, meet other financial needs or simply reduce the risk ratio when they see increased capital costs.
Another factor to pay attention to is foreign capital flows. After net buying for 2 consecutive weeks, foreign investors returned to net selling in the next 2 weeks. Accumulated from the beginning of the year, foreign investors net sold nearly 95,000 billion VND. This figure extends the very strong net selling trend of foreign investors in recent years. In 2025, the net selling value reached 1353.29 billion VND.
The return of foreign capital is therefore still one of the important variables for market liquidity in the coming time. FTSE Russell's confirmation that Vietnam is upgraded to the secondary emerging market from September 21, 2026. The announcement of a specific stock portfolio in this restructuring period is the basis for index simulation funds to begin calculating the disbursement ratio.
This continues to be a catalyst expected to support the market in the coming weeks, combined with the domestic macroeconomic foundation still positive when GDP growth is maintained at a high level and listed company profits improve sharply in the first half of the year.
Although the amount of foreign capital expected to be disbursed in September is only about 3,000-4,000 billion VND, equivalent to about 150 million USD, not a large number, this capital flow is still expected to contribute to curbing the prolonged net selling of foreign investors since the beginning of the year. This is a noteworthy supporting factor for the market in the coming time.
In the immediate future, cash flow pressure forces investors to still face a market with many variables. The 1,800 point zone is the next important resistance level, and at the same time approaches the upper bound of the correction trend channel formed from mid-May. Meanwhile, the 1,700-1,720 point zone continues to be an important support to maintain the current recovery structure.
This week, VN-Index may aim to test the 1,800 point zone, thereby determining the possibility of expanding the recovery momentum to higher price zones. However, fluctuations may increase when the index approaches this resistance zone.
Investors can start disbursing with a larger proportion than the previous exploration period, prioritizing sessions where the index slightly adjusts to the 1.740-1.760 point range to optimize cost of goods sold, instead of chasing at all costs right after the strong increase session. The goal of the buying phase in Q3/2026 is a profit level of 15-20%.
The securities and banking groups continue to be priority industry groups to be observed and disbursed in rhythm, focusing on leading stocks thanks to their leading roles that have been confirmed and expected to directly benefit from capital flows after upgrades.
