On December 11, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) released its updated Asian Development Outlook (ADO) report. According to the report, Vietnam is taking advantage of opportunities from trade and investment to promote growth despite global challenges.
ADB has raised Vietnam’s economic growth forecast to 6.4% in 2024, up from 6.0% previously, and to 6.6% in 2025, up from 6.2%. These figures show a strong recovery in Vietnam’s economy, driven by key factors such as strong trade as manufacturing exports continue to grow strongly.
In the public investment sector, key infrastructure projects are being implemented synchronously, creating momentum for related industries. Along with that, policy support is more effective as fiscal and monetary measures have helped stimulate domestic demand and stabilize the economy in the context of increasing external pressure.
ADB said that Vietnam is showing good adaptability to changes in the global supply chain, while effectively taking advantage of free trade agreements to expand export markets.
Along with Vietnam, the ADB also raised Southeast Asia’s economic growth outlook this year to 4.7% from its previous forecast of 4.5%, thanks to stronger manufacturing exports and public investment spending. The forecast for next year was kept unchanged at 4.7%.
For Asia-Pacific, economic growth is expected to remain stable this year and next, according to ADB. However, upcoming US policy changes under Donald Trump are likely to impact the region's long-term prospects.
Changes in US trade, fiscal and immigration policies could reduce growth and increase inflation in developing Asia-Pacific countries. As these major policy changes are expected to take time and be implemented gradually, the impact on the region is likely to be felt from 2026 onwards.
The impact could be felt sooner if policies are implemented earlier and more quickly than expected, or if US-based companies import ahead of time to avoid potential tariffs.
Under the high-risk scenario, ADB forecasts that strong policy changes in the United States could reduce global economic growth by a cumulative 0.5 percentage point over the next four years.
Broad-based tariffs could hurt international trade and investment, leading to a shift to more costly domestic production. At the same time, immigration restrictions could reduce the U.S. labor supply. Combined with a potentially more expansionary fiscal policy stance under the incoming Trump administration, tariffs and reduced immigration could reignite inflationary pressures in the U.S.
