The Vietnamese stock market had a rough start to the new year 2025. The peak was the last session of the week on January 3, when selling pressure increased, causing the market to turn red. The VN-Index lost more than 15 points and closed the first week of the year at 1,254.59 points, leaving many concerns about the short-term outlook.
In terms of impact, the VN30 group put pressure on the general market when the 10 stocks with the most negative impact on the index all belonged to this group. Among them, TCB, CTG and FPT were the leading names, each stock took away more than 1 point from the VN-Index. On the other hand, there were no significant names on the positive side, which showed the dominance of the selling side.
With large capitalization, the financial group put heavy pressure on the index when a series of stocks from banks, securities to insurance all fell sharply by more than 2%.
Except for the telecommunications group, which maintained a slight green color thanks to the great contribution of CTR (+3.19%) and YEG (+6.83%), all other industry groups ended the week in red. Of which, the information technology, industrial, energy and consumer staples groups all fell sharply by more than 1.5%. Many stocks plummeted with significant liquidity.
Foreign investors net sold more than VND960 billion worth of shares on both exchanges last week. Of which, foreign investors net sold nearly VND954 billion on the HOSE and net sold more than VND6 billion on the HNX.
January 3 was a strong decline in the stock market, but if we look at the cycle of nearly a year, when VN-Index only fluctuated between 1,200-1,300 points, analysts said that yesterday's performance was not unusual.
In the medium term, the index is moving sideways, and if viewed positively, this is a period of accumulation within a narrow range, the longer the accumulation, the greater the compression. If the economy shows positive signs, the VN-Index can accelerate very quickly.
BIDV Securities Joint Stock Company (BSC) has proposed two GDP scenarios for 2025 and 2026, in which scenario 1 has GDP growth of 6.5% and 6.3% respectively, while scenario 2 is more positive with growth of 7.4% and 6.8% respectively.
According to BSC, the 2025 and 2026 periods will record improved return on equity, mainly driven by a compound growth of after-tax profit in the 2024-2026 period of 18.3%, while the market may be revalued at a higher level.
First, scale growth benefits from a strong economic recovery cycle, with potential for valuation increases with current investment rates at a reasonable level, anticipating economic growth recovery; scale growth captures market share, creating competitive advantages; benefits from a low lending interest rate base, roughly equivalent to the COVID-19 period (8.5 - 9.5%).
Second, disbursement of investment in infrastructure and real estate recovery promotes credit growth and consumption.
The construction materials, infrastructure and real estate group will record an acceleration in infrastructure investment disbursement after a period of stagnation; legal bottlenecks will be resolved, sales will recover, giving priority to businesses with sales revenue from new projects, especially real estate businesses in the South. The construction materials, construction, industrial park and seaport industries will benefit in the medium and long term.
Banking, retail, and consumer groups will have discounted and reasonable valuations. In particular, the banking group will benefit from the promotion of credit growth, bad debt handling, and credit cost control, thereby leading to the recovery of consumer goods.
