Confidence is a factor that has almost no improvement after the recent recovery, which is a worrying thing besides the fact that foreign investors have returned to their usual net selling rhythm.
We have entered the stage where securities companies as well as financial institutions have to balance their capital sources at the end of the fiscal year, which can affect short-term cash flow in the market.
In addition, as we enter the end of the year, forecasts of business results of enterprises are gradually revealed, the differentiation may be more obvious than in recent days. The tug-of-war trend is forecast to prevail again this week, with a high possibility of a slight decrease to near the support level at 1,250 points. On the other hand, the 1,290-1,300 point threshold is still a difficult challenge to overcome with the current actual conditions.
Although 2025 is expected to be a year of strong growth for Vietnam, uncertain factors can still lead to unusual fluctuations in the stock market. Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong, Investment Director of DG Capital, gave 3 factors that are forecast to affect the stock market in 2025.
First, Donald Trump's upcoming trade and tariff policies could put Vietnam's economy in the crosshairs of taxation due to its high trade deficit with the US.
Second, the expected strengthening of the US dollar under “Trump 2.0” will make the exchange rate issue hotter in 2025.
Third, a large amount of corporate bonds will mature in 2025 after being extended by Decree No. 08/2023/ND-CP, amounting to VND250,000 billion, with about 40% from the real estate sector. The risk of delayed principal repayment by enterprises after the end of the debt restructuring extension period may increase financial risks.
Caution is not superfluous. However, in general, in 2025, according to the 2025 industry outlook report of BSC Securities Company, the stock market in the period of 2024 - 2026 will be "revalued" at a higher level than the period of 2016 - 2018 thanks to similarities such as: P/E VN-Index trading at a historical low, ROE profitability ratio improved, deposit interest rates maintained at a low level...
Along with that, investment opportunities will be identified thanks to the differentiation between industry groups. In particular, industry groups such as oil and gas, fertilizer, information technology, maritime transport... are held by experts with a positive view in 2025.
Besides the economic recovery playing a supporting role, the story of upgrading Vietnam's stock market is still the most important highlight.
In the process of implementing solutions to upgrade the market, the Ministry of Finance issued Circular 68/2024/TT-BTC dated September 18, 2024, removing the requirement to have sufficient funds before making a purchase transaction by foreign institutional investors, and at the same time providing a roadmap for listed and registered enterprises to disclose information in English.
Circular 68/2024/TT-BTC takes effect from November 2, 2024, so the market upgrade is expected to take place at the next review in 2025. FTSE Russell is expected to include Vietnam in the list of emerging markets in September 2025, while MSCI may conduct a similar review a year later.
According to World Bank forecasts, if upgraded by FTSE Russell and MSCI in 2025, Vietnam's stock market could attract $25 billion in new investment capital from international investors by 2030, through both passive and active capital flows.
For passive investment funds such as ETFs (which are investing in emerging markets), the proportion of Vietnamese stocks can account for 0.7 - 1.2% in the emerging market index basket of MSCI and FTSE Russell, the estimated value of passive capital flowing into Vietnam is estimated at 1.6 billion USD. Meanwhile, capital flows from active investment funds are expected to increase 4 - 5 times compared to the present, when Vietnam becomes a potential and safer market in the eyes of foreign investors.
