The VN-Index of the stock market continued to experience another slight correction session on the last day of 2024 and was in a tug-of-war situation, not giving many confirming signals in terms of trend.
The above phenomenon is forecasted to continue in the next few sessions, with the short-term uptrend still playing a dominant role, the index is expected to have a chance to recover when bottom-fishing demand increases at the nearby support zone.
While the general trend remained positive, the market witnessed more negative foreign capital flows as net withdrawals occurred at a strong intensity, continuously over the months, and set a record year of net selling in both volume and value.
In 2024, foreign investors sold net for 11 months and only bought net in January. In total, this group sold net 3.12 billion shares, with a total net selling value of VND 92,294 billion, equivalent to more than USD 3.6 billion, nearly 4 times higher in both volume and value compared to 2023. In particular, compared to the previous record year in 2021 with a net selling value of 1.53 billion shares, worth VND 62,237 billion, last year, this number doubled in volume and increased by nearly 50% in value.
However, experts are still generally optimistic about the stock market situation in 2025, highly appreciating the prospects of the Vietnamese stock market in the medium and long term with positive conditions supporting the market in 2025 and the growth potential of the economy.
Besides, in the long term, the DXY index related to exchange rates is expected to decrease, which is an inevitable trend in an environment of loose monetary policy, and capital flows will gradually return to emerging and high-potential investment markets like Vietnam.
Analysts at ABS Securities Company forecast that in 2025, after-tax profits of listed companies will recover by 17.8% year-on-year, thanks to both increased revenue and improved profit margins, helping to raise market valuations.
The analysis team has proposed two scenarios for the VN-Index in 2025, in which the positive scenario is prioritized. In the positive scenario, the Vietnamese stock market continues to reflect positive economic growth prospects.
The VN-Index is forecasted to have the next medium-term increase with an amplitude of 240 - 260 points. In 2025, there will be short-term increases with a linear amplitude of 80 - 120 points, in sync with the medium-term increase, aiming to conquer the price ranges of 1,345 - 1,358 and 1,370 - 1,397 (possibly reaching the threshold of 1,408 - 1,435 points).
The negative scenario occurs when unusual major events in the world happen quickly and have a strong impact on Vietnam's economic recovery efforts. Meanwhile, the USD maintains its strength while in a long-term uptrend, supported by a stronger US economy.
Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong, Investment Director of DG Capitla, commented that the stock market in 2025 will be motivated by three big expectation stories.
Firstly, the high GDP growth expectation in 2025 that the Government strives to exceed will be led by a strong recovery of domestic economic components such as domestic consumption and investment (public investment and private investment).
Second, the story of loose global monetary policy is supportive of the market trend stabilization.
Third, the FTSE emerging market upgrade story will be a breakthrough driver for attracting cash flow.
"According to the history of previous markets, the upgrade story often attracts a large amount of capital inflows both domestically and internationally, and stock indices have positive developments starting from an average of 6 months before the upgrade. Therefore, VN-Index has a high probability of attracting cash flow and more positive developments from March 2025, thanks to the upgrade expectation," said Dr. Phuong.
